Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 14/10, 18:00

Prediction: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 vs JK Nomme Kalju II

Team pages: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 · JK Nomme Kalju II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

FC Levadia Tallinn U212.39

JK Nomme Kalju II1.08

1X2

67% 18% 16%

FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Draw JK Nomme Kalju II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Levadia Tallinn U21 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLWLWDWW

JK Nomme Kalju II 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLLLL

Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn U21 2–2–2 JK Nomme Kalju II (6 last)

JK Nomme Kalju II0-2FC Levadia Tallinn U21
JK Nomme Kalju II1-0FC Levadia Tallinn U21
FC Levadia Tallinn U212-0JK Nomme Kalju II
FC Levadia Tallinn U210-0JK Nomme Kalju II
FC Levadia Tallinn U213-3JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme Kalju II3-2FC Levadia Tallinn U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Levadia Tallinn U21 1547 · JK Nomme Kalju II 1387

	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	Draw	JK Nomme Kalju II
Our model	66%	20%	15%
Market	67%	16%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.47 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn U21 (rating 1547 vs 1387).
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	JK Nomme Kalju II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2	0.8 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.4 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.50

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.88

Under 4.251.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 17:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.22▼	Pinn 1.26 ★
X	5.50 → 6.50▲	Bet365 6.50
2	5.50 → 7.50▲	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
07:02 +2’	1.33	5.50	5.50
13:54 +10’	1.25▼	6.25▲	7.00▲
15:03 +3’	1.22▼	6.50▲	7.00
17:12 +1’	1.22	6.50	7.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:12 +51’	1.28	5.81	5.61
07:22 +40’	1.27▼	5.89▲	5.66▲
08:08 +54’	1.26▼	5.93▲	5.75▲
09:13 +50’	1.28▲	5.79▼	5.52▼
14:03 +1’	1.17▼	7.07▲	7.55▲
15:01 +5’	1.16▼	7.21▲	7.68▲
16:02 +11’	1.17▲	7.38▲	7.87▲
17:09 +3’	1.26▲	6.14▼	6.13▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Levadia Tallinn U21 2–2–2 JK Nomme Kalju II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
11/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
07/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	2-0 HT 1-0	JK Nomme Kalju II
20/10/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	0-0 HT 0-0	JK Nomme Kalju II
15/09/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	3-3 HT 1-2	JK Nomme Kalju II
30/06/25 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	3-2 HT 3-1	FC Levadia Tallinn U21

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	32	21	5	6	85	39	68
2	Viimsi JK	32	17	5	10	58	32	56
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	32	15	6	11	73	55	51
4	FC Elva	32	15	6	11	47	48	51
5	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	31	15	2	14	61	55	47
6	JK Tallinna Kalev	31	11	7	13	53	57	40
7	JK Nomme United II	32	11	6	15	50	63	39
8	FC Tallinn	31	9	8	14	41	64	35
9	JK Nomme Kalju II	31	7	4	20	38	79	25

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme United II	1-0 W	2-3 L
FC Tallinn	5-1 W	2-0 W
Tartu JK Welco	0-0 D	0-3 L
FC Flora Tallinn II	6-2 W	1-5 L
Maardu Linnameeskond	2-4 L	1-4 L
FC Elva	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Levadia Tallinn U21

DWLLWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
13/09	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	5-1	7	4	W
10/09	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
04/09	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	6-2	4	5	W
29/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	2-4	5	3	L
23/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	9	5	W
20/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	2-4	6	2	L
15/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-5	4	9	L
08/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
01/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-2	7	3	D

JK Nomme Kalju II

LLLLLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-3	4	5	L
14/09	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
10/09	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-4	1-5	3	5	L
06/09	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
29/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
23/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	2-4	2	3	L
20/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
17/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
10/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-3	0	4	L
01/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-4	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Levadia Tallinn U21 vs JK Nomme Kalju II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Levadia Tallinn U21 win (67%). Probabilities: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 67%, draw 18%, JK Nomme Kalju II 16%.

How many goals are expected in FC Levadia Tallinn U21 vs JK Nomme Kalju II?

The model expects 3.47 goals (FC Levadia Tallinn U21 2.39 · JK Nomme Kalju II 1.08), with a 59% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Levadia Tallinn U21 vs JK Nomme Kalju II?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.