Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 15/10, 18:00

Prediction: FC Tallinn vs Tartu JK Welco

Team pages: FC Tallinn · Tartu JK Welco

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

FC Tallinn1.28

Tartu JK Welco2.23

1X2

21% 20% 59%

FC Tallinn Draw Tartu JK Welco

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Tallinn 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLDLLWLDW

Tartu JK Welco 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDDWWW

Head-to-head

FC Tallinn 1–1–4 Tartu JK Welco (6 last)

Tartu JK Welco0-2FC Tallinn
Tartu JK Welco4-0FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn0-2Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco2-2FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn0-2Tartu JK Welco
FC Tallinn1-5Tartu JK Welco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Tallinn 1472 · Tartu JK Welco 1579

	FC Tallinn	Draw	Tartu JK Welco
Our model	20%	22%	58%
Market	22%	19%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tartu JK Welco (rating 1472 vs 1579).
H2H favours Tartu JK Welco: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Tallinn	Tartu JK Welco
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	1.6 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.6	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.20

X4.75

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.73 ★
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:00 +3’	4.20	4.75	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:12 +51’	4.63	4.05	1.51
12:35 +28’	4.60▼	4.02▼	1.51▲
14:03	4.62▲	4.05▲	1.50▼
16:03 +1’	4.73▲	4.14▲	1.51▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Tallinn 1–1–4 Tartu JK Welco

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	0-2 HT 0-2	FC Tallinn
13/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	4-0 HT 1-0	FC Tallinn
01/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	0-2 HT 0-0	Tartu JK Welco
21/09/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	2-2 HT 2-1	FC Tallinn
23/08/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	0-2 HT 0-2	Tartu JK Welco
05/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	1-5 HT 1-2	Tartu JK Welco

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	32	21	5	6	85	39	68
2	Viimsi JK	32	17	5	10	58	32	56
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	32	15	6	11	73	55	51
4	FC Elva	32	15	6	11	47	48	51
5	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	32	16	2	14	62	55	50
6	JK Tallinna Kalev	31	11	7	13	53	57	40
7	JK Nomme United II	32	11	6	15	50	63	39
8	FC Tallinn	31	9	8	14	41	64	35
9	JK Nomme Kalju II	32	7	4	21	38	80	25

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Tallinn	Tartu JK Welco
FC Flora Tallinn II	2-1 W	2-1 W
FC Elva	1-1 D	4-0 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	1-5 L	0-0 D
Viimsi JK	2-1 W	2-0 W
JK Nomme Kalju II	0-2 L	3-0 W
JK Tallinna Kalev	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Tartu JK Welco (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Tallinn

WDLDLLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-1	6	3	W
19/09	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
13/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-5	6	4	L
03/09	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
29/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
23/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
20/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
15/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
08/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
01/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	3	5	W

Tartu JK Welco

LWWWLDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	4-0	6	2	W
17/09	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
14/09	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
10/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
05/09	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
29/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
23/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	4-2	14	3	W
20/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	4-2	8	2	W
15/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
08/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-2	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Tallinn vs Tartu JK Welco?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tartu JK Welco win (59%). Probabilities: FC Tallinn 21%, draw 20%, Tartu JK Welco 59%.

How many goals are expected in FC Tallinn vs Tartu JK Welco?

The model expects 3.5 goals (FC Tallinn 1.28 · Tartu JK Welco 2.23), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Tallinn vs Tartu JK Welco?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.