Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 09/10, 18:30

Prediction: Tartu JK Welco vs FC Elva

Team pages: Tartu JK Welco · FC Elva

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Tartu JK Welco2

FC Elva1.32

1X2

52% 24% 24%

Tartu JK Welco Draw FC Elva

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Tartu JK Welco 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLDDWW

FC Elva 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWWLWD

Head-to-head

Tartu JK Welco 3–1–2 FC Elva (6 last)

FC Elva2-1Tartu JK Welco
FC Elva0-2Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco3-3FC Elva
Tartu JK Welco3-2FC Elva
FC Elva1-2Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco2-5FC Elva

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tartu JK Welco (rating 1571 vs 1523).
H2H favours Tartu JK Welco: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tartu JK Welco	FC Elva
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 5.7	3.1 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.81

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:05

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.83
X	3.76 → 3.76	Pinn 3.76
2	3.19 → 3.19	Pinn 3.19

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
09:34 +31’	1.83	3.76	3.19

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tartu JK Welco 3–1–2 FC Elva

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	2-1 HT 2-0	Tartu JK Welco
01/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	0-2 HT 0-1	Tartu JK Welco
27/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	3-3 HT 3-1	FC Elva
27/10/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	3-2 HT 1-1	FC Elva
04/08/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	1-2 HT 1-1	Tartu JK Welco
14/06/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	2-5 HT 1-4	FC Elva

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	31	20	5	6	81	39	65
2	Viimsi JK	31	16	5	10	56	31	53
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	31	15	6	10	72	53	51
4	FC Elva	31	15	6	10	47	44	51
5	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	30	14	2	14	60	55	44
6	JK Tallinna Kalev	30	11	7	12	52	55	40
7	JK Nomme United II	31	11	6	14	50	62	39
8	FC Tallinn	30	8	8	14	39	63	32
9	JK Nomme Kalju II	31	7	4	20	38	79	25

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tartu JK Welco	FC Elva
Viimsi JK	2-0 W	0-5 L
JK Nomme Kalju II	3-0 W	1-0 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	0-0 D	2-2 D
JK Tallinna Kalev	1-1 D	0-1 L
FC Flora Tallinn II	2-1 W	2-1 W
JK Nomme United II	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tartu JK Welco (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tartu JK Welco

LLWWWLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
14/09	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
10/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
05/09	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
29/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
23/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	4-2	14	3	W
20/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	4-2	8	2	W
15/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
08/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-2	8	5	L
01/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-2	6	2	L

FC Elva

DWLWDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
13/09	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
10/09	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-5	1	4	L
06/09	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
30/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
24/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
20/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	4	9	W
15/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
08/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
01/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-2	7	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tartu JK Welco vs FC Elva?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tartu JK Welco win (52%). Probabilities: Tartu JK Welco 52%, draw 24%, FC Elva 24%.

How many goals are expected in Tartu JK Welco vs FC Elva?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Tartu JK Welco 2 · FC Elva 1.32), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tartu JK Welco vs FC Elva?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.