Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 17/09, 18:00

Prediction: Viimsi JK vs Tartu JK Welco

Team pages: Viimsi JK · Tartu JK Welco

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

Viimsi JK1.63

Tartu JK Welco1.77

1X2

35% 23% 41%

Viimsi JK Draw Tartu JK Welco

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Viimsi JK 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWWLWL

Tartu JK Welco 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWLDDW

Head-to-head

Viimsi JK 5–1–0 Tartu JK Welco (6 last)

Tartu JK Welco1-3Viimsi JK
Tartu JK Welco2-2Viimsi JK
Viimsi JK2-0Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco1-4Viimsi JK
Viimsi JK3-2Tartu JK Welco
Viimsi JK2-1Tartu JK Welco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Viimsi JK 1565 · Tartu JK Welco 1507

	Viimsi JK	Draw	Tartu JK Welco
Our model	35%	25%	41%
Market	36%	22%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Viimsi JK (rating 1565 vs 1507).
H2H favours Viimsi JK: 5-1-0.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Viimsi JK	Tartu JK Welco
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.2	1.8 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.4	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X4.00

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 8 moves · last 15:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.50▲	Pinn 2.58 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.30 → 2.15▼	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (8)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:09 +11’	2.30	4.00	2.30
14:20 +6’	2.05▼	4.10▲	2.60▲
16:55 +5’	2.05	4.20▲	2.55▼
23:08 +5’	1.83▼	4.33▲	2.88▲
07:01 +3’	1.83	4.20▼	3.00▲
12:09 +6’	1.90▲	4.10▼	2.88▼
13:49 +6’	2.05▲	4.00▼	2.63▼
15:45 +3’	2.50▲	4.00	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:02 +24’	1.87	3.70	3.12
14:51 +129’	1.90▲	3.85▲	2.94▼
21:59 +74’	1.88▼	3.88▲	2.96▲
23:48 +15’	1.85▼	3.91▲	3.04▲
04:53 +59’	1.85▲	3.87▼	3.05▲
10:30 +8’	1.92▲	3.74▼	2.98▼
12:15	2.11▲	3.73▼	2.61▼
13:36 +18’	2.08▼	3.87▲	2.59▼
15:05 +43’	2.58▲	3.79▼	2.11▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Viimsi JK 5–1–0 Tartu JK Welco

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	1-3 HT 0-2	Viimsi JK
02/07/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	2-2 HT 2-1	Viimsi JK
23/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Viimsi JK	2-0 HT 1-0	Tartu JK Welco
03/10/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	1-4 HT 0-2	Viimsi JK
18/08/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Viimsi JK	3-2 HT 2-1	Tartu JK Welco
23/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Viimsi JK	2-1 HT 0-1	Tartu JK Welco

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	30	19	5	6	81	39	62
2	Viimsi JK	30	15	5	10	56	31	50
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	29	14	5	10	70	51	47
4	FC Elva	29	14	5	10	46	43	47
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	27	12	5	10	45	55	41
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	29	13	2	14	60	55	41
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	28	10	6	12	50	53	36
8	JK Nomme United II	29	9	6	14	47	60	33
9	FC Tallinn	28	7	7	14	34	62	28
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	29	6	4	19	36	76	22

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Viimsi JK	Tartu JK Welco
JK Nomme United II	0-1 L	1-2 L
FC Elva	5-0 W	1-2 L
FC Tallinn	1-2 L	0-2 L
FC Flora Tallinn II	1-2 L	2-1 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	5-0 W	0-0 D
JK Tallinna Kalev	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Viimsi JK (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Viimsi JK

WLWWLWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
10/09	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	3-0	5-0	6	4	W
03/09	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-2	7	6	L
29/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	3	5	W
24/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	4-1	10	5	W
21/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-2	8	9	L
15/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	5-0	4	9	W
08/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
03/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	7	8	L
27/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	3-0	7	7	W

Tartu JK Welco

LLLWWWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
10/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
05/09	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
29/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
23/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	4-2	14	3	W
20/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	4-2	8	2	W
15/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
08/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-2	8	5	L
01/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
18/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-2	10	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Viimsi JK vs Tartu JK Welco?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tartu JK Welco win (41%). Probabilities: Viimsi JK 35%, draw 23%, Tartu JK Welco 41%.

How many goals are expected in Viimsi JK vs Tartu JK Welco?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Viimsi JK 1.63 · Tartu JK Welco 1.77), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Viimsi JK vs Tartu JK Welco?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.