Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 18/09, 16:30

Prediction: JK Tallinna Kalev vs FC Flora Tallinn II

Team pages: JK Tallinna Kalev · FC Flora Tallinn II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.04Total

JK Tallinna Kalev2.12

FC Flora Tallinn II1.93

1X2

43% 21% 36%

JK Tallinna Kalev Draw FC Flora Tallinn II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Tallinna Kalev 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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FC Flora Tallinn II 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

JK Tallinna Kalev 2–1–3 FC Flora Tallinn II (6 last)

FC Flora Tallinn II5-0JK Tallinna Kalev
FC Flora Tallinn II3-1JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Tallinna Kalev1-4FC Flora Tallinn II
JK Tallinna Kalev3-1FC Flora Tallinn II
JK Tallinna Kalev1-0FC Flora Tallinn II
JK Tallinna Kalev1-1FC Flora Tallinn II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Tallinna Kalev 1510 · FC Flora Tallinn II 1518

	JK Tallinna Kalev	Draw	FC Flora Tallinn II
Our model	43%	22%	35%
Market	44%	20%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 4.04 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Flora Tallinn II: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Tallinna Kalev	FC Flora Tallinn II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	2.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	1.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 7	3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X4.50

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 42.00

Under 41.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	2.25 → 2.45▲	Pinn 3.06 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:15 +11’	2.25	4.50	2.25
15:43 +4’	2.05▼	4.50	2.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:41 +94’	2.24	3.67	2.46
07:06 +50’	2.14▼	3.67	2.60▲
11:31 +86’	2.16▲	3.69▲	2.56▼
15:36 +11’	1.91▼	3.82▲	3.06▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Tallinna Kalev 2–1–3 FC Flora Tallinn II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	5-0 HT 3-0	JK Tallinna Kalev
14/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	3-1 HT 0-0	JK Tallinna Kalev
16/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	1-4 HT 1-2	FC Flora Tallinn II
18/01/26 Europe Friendlies	JK Tallinna Kalev	3-1 HT 2-0	FC Flora Tallinn II
16/10/21 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Flora Tallinn II
07/08/21 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Flora Tallinn II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	30	19	5	6	81	39	62
2	Viimsi JK	30	15	5	10	56	31	50
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	30	14	6	10	72	53	48
4	FC Elva	30	14	6	10	47	44	48
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	27	12	5	10	45	55	41
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	29	13	2	14	60	55	41
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	29	10	7	12	52	55	37
8	JK Nomme United II	29	9	6	14	47	60	33
9	FC Tallinn	29	7	8	14	35	63	29
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	29	6	4	19	36	76	22

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Tallinna Kalev	FC Flora Tallinn II
Tartu JK Welco	1-1 D	1-2 L
JK Nomme Kalju II	3-0 W	5-1 W
FC Elva	1-0 W	1-2 L
FC Tallinn	1-1 D	0-1 L
Viimsi JK	2-1 W	2-1 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	2-3 L	2-6 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: JK Tallinna Kalev (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Tallinna Kalev

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	9	6	L
05/09	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-1	11	4	D
29/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-5	6	3	L
24/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
20/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	3-0	9	5	W
15/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
08/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
03/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
18/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	8	4	W
11/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-3	7	6	L

FC Flora Tallinn II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
10/09	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	4-0	5-1	9	5	W
04/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	2-6	2	5	L
29/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	3-0	5-0	11	3	W
24/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
21/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-1	2	9	W
15/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
10/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	3-0	3-0	7	4	W
01/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
25/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	5-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Tallinna Kalev vs FC Flora Tallinn II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Tallinna Kalev win (43%). Probabilities: JK Tallinna Kalev 43%, draw 21%, FC Flora Tallinn II 36%.

How many goals are expected in JK Tallinna Kalev vs FC Flora Tallinn II?

The model expects 4.04 goals (JK Tallinna Kalev 2.12 · FC Flora Tallinn II 1.93), with a 53% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Tallinna Kalev vs FC Flora Tallinn II?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.