Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 19/09, 15:00

Prediction: FC Elva vs FC Tallinn

Team pages: FC Elva · FC Tallinn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

FC Elva1.79

FC Tallinn0.95

1X2

57% 22% 20%

FC Elva Draw FC Tallinn

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Elva 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDWWLW

FC Tallinn 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWWDLDLLWL

Head-to-head

FC Elva 3–3–0 FC Tallinn (6 last)

FC Elva2-0FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn1-1FC Elva
FC Elva1-0FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn1-2FC Elva
FC Elva1-1FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn1-1FC Elva

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Elva 1575 · FC Tallinn 1480

	FC Elva	Draw	FC Tallinn
Our model	56%	25%	19%
Market	59%	20%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Elva (rating 1575 vs 1480).
H2H favours FC Elva: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Elva	FC Tallinn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.6	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.50

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Pinn 1.56 ★
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
08:09 +25’	1.53	4.50	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:11 +145’	1.55	4.17	4.12
07:42 +72’	1.52▼	4.24▲	4.28▲
11:01 +118’	1.56▲	4.14▼	4.06▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Elva 3–3–0 FC Tallinn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Tallinn
07/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Elva
19/10/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Tallinn
16/08/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Elva
22/05/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Tallinn
24/04/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Elva

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	30	19	5	6	81	39	62
2	Viimsi JK	30	15	5	10	56	31	50
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	30	14	6	10	72	53	48
4	FC Elva	30	14	6	10	47	44	48
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	27	12	5	10	45	55	41
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	29	13	2	14	60	55	41
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	29	10	7	12	52	55	37
8	JK Nomme United II	29	9	6	14	47	60	33
9	FC Tallinn	29	7	8	14	35	63	29
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	29	6	4	19	36	76	22

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Elva	FC Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn II	2-1 W	1-0 W
Viimsi JK	0-5 L	2-1 W
JK Nomme Kalju II	1-0 W	0-2 L
JK Nomme United II	1-0 W	1-1 D
Maardu Linnameeskond	1-0 W	0-1 L
JK Tallinna Kalev	0-1 L	1-1 D
Tartu JK Welco	2-1 W	2-0 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	2-2 D	1-5 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Elva (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Elva

WDWLWDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
10/09	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-5	1	4	L
06/09	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
30/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
24/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
20/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	4	9	W
15/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
08/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
01/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-2	7	3	D
16/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	4	5	W

FC Tallinn

WWWDLDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-5	6	4	L
03/09	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
29/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
23/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
20/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
15/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
08/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
01/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
18/07	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
04/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	3-2	4-3	7	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Elva vs FC Tallinn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Elva win (57%). Probabilities: FC Elva 57%, draw 22%, FC Tallinn 20%.

How many goals are expected in FC Elva vs FC Tallinn?

The model expects 2.75 goals (FC Elva 1.79 · FC Tallinn 0.95), with a 60% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Elva vs FC Tallinn?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.