Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 14/09, 18:00

Prediction: Tartu JK Welco vs JK Nomme Kalju II

Team pages: Tartu JK Welco · JK Nomme Kalju II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.48Total

Tartu JK Welco3.16

JK Nomme Kalju II1.32

1X2

73% 15% 12%

Tartu JK Welco Draw JK Nomme Kalju II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Tartu JK Welco 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWLDD

JK Nomme Kalju II 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Tartu JK Welco 5–1 JK Nomme Kalju II (6 last)

JK Nomme Kalju II2-4Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco4-2JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme Kalju II1-5Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco5-2JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme Kalju II0-3Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco0-1JK Nomme Kalju II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tartu JK Welco 1567 · JK Nomme Kalju II 1372

	Tartu JK Welco	Draw	JK Nomme Kalju II
Our model	73%	15%	12%
Market	73%	15%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 4.48 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tartu JK Welco (rating 1567 vs 1372).
H2H favours Tartu JK Welco: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tartu JK Welco	JK Nomme Kalju II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.6	0.6 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.4 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 6.4	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.25

X6.25

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.85

2 (+2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.85

Under 4.251.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 15:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.25▲	Bet365 1.25
X	7.00 → 6.25▼	Pinn 7.59 ★
2	8.00 → 7.50▼	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 12.9%

Time*	1	X	2
09:52 +10’	1.20	7.00	8.00
11:58 +5’	1.22▲	6.50▼	8.00
13:00 +3’	1.25▲	6.25▼	7.00▼
14:59 +4’	1.25	6.25	7.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:29 +33’	1.13	8.19	8.42
08:52 +8’	1.13	8.18▼	8.41▼
12:12 +52’	1.16▲	7.59▼	7.38▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 4.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tartu JK Welco 5–0–1 JK Nomme Kalju II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	2-4 HT 2-1	Tartu JK Welco
28/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	4-2 HT 2-2	JK Nomme Kalju II
11/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	1-5 HT 0-1	Tartu JK Welco
23/10/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	5-2 HT 2-2	JK Nomme Kalju II
19/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	0-3 HT 0-0	Tartu JK Welco
19/06/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	0-1 HT 0-1	JK Nomme Kalju II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	28	17	5	6	76	39	56
2	Viimsi JK	29	15	5	9	56	29	50
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	29	14	5	10	70	51	47
4	FC Elva	29	14	5	10	46	43	47
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	27	12	5	10	45	55	41
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	29	13	2	14	60	55	41
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	28	10	6	12	50	53	36
8	JK Nomme United II	29	9	6	14	47	60	33
9	FC Tallinn	28	7	7	14	34	62	28
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	28	6	4	18	36	73	22

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tartu JK Welco	JK Nomme Kalju II
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	0-0 D	0-2 L
JK Tallinna Kalev	1-1 D	0-3 L
FC Flora Tallinn II	2-1 W	1-5 L
FC Elva	1-2 L	0-1 L
JK Nomme United II	1-2 L	0-2 L
FC Tallinn	0-2 L	2-0 W
Maardu Linnameeskond	8-1 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Tartu JK Welco (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tartu JK Welco

WLLLWWWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
05/09	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
29/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
23/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	4-2	14	3	W
20/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	4-2	8	2	W
15/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
08/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-2	8	5	L
01/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
18/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-2	10	3	L
13/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	4-1	8-1	4	3	W

JK Nomme Kalju II

LLLLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-4	1-5	3	5	L
06/09	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
29/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
23/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	2-4	2	3	L
20/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
17/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
10/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-3	0	4	L
01/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-4	5	2	L
25/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-5	5	4	L
18/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-2	8	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tartu JK Welco vs JK Nomme Kalju II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tartu JK Welco win (73%). Probabilities: Tartu JK Welco 73%, draw 15%, JK Nomme Kalju II 12%.

How many goals are expected in Tartu JK Welco vs JK Nomme Kalju II?

The model expects 4.48 goals (Tartu JK Welco 3.16 · JK Nomme Kalju II 1.32), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tartu JK Welco vs JK Nomme Kalju II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.