Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 21/09, 16:30

Prediction: JK Nomme Kalju II vs JK Nomme United II

Team pages: JK Nomme Kalju II · JK Nomme United II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

JK Nomme Kalju II1.21

JK Nomme United II2.27

1X2

20% 19% 62%

JK Nomme Kalju II Draw JK Nomme United II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme Kalju II 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWLLL

JK Nomme United II 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLLLWW

Head-to-head

JK Nomme Kalju II 2–1 JK Nomme United II (3 last)

JK Nomme United II2-0JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme Kalju II4-1JK Nomme United II
JK Nomme United II0-3JK Nomme Kalju II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme Kalju II 1415 · JK Nomme United II 1462

	JK Nomme Kalju II	Draw	JK Nomme United II
Our model	19%	21%	60%
Market	21%	16%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Nomme United II (rating 1415 vs 1462).
H2H favours JK Nomme Kalju II: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme Kalju II	JK Nomme United II
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 3	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.4	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.1	2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.4	4.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

14.33

X5.50

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.82

2 (-1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.33▲	Pinn 5.32 ★
X	4.75 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50
2	1.53 → 1.44▼	Bet365 1.44

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:48 +12’	4.10	4.75	1.53
14:56 +6’	3.60▼	4.50▼	1.65▲
16:01	4.33▲	5.50▲	1.44▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:45 +16’	3.28	4.20	1.71
06:52 +9’	3.47▲	4.21▲	1.65▼
08:47 +14’	3.20▼	4.00▼	1.69▲
09:56 +4’	3.18▼	4.00	1.70▲
11:28 +33’	3.22▲	4.01▲	1.68▼
12:43 +19’	4.19▲	4.48▲	1.50▼
13:51 +10’	3.50▼	4.32▼	1.64▲
15:01 +1’	4.11▲	4.58▲	1.52▼
15:58 +3’	5.32▲	5.50▲	1.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme Kalju II 2–0–1 JK Nomme United II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme United II	2-0 HT 0-0	JK Nomme Kalju II
15/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	4-1 HT 2-1	JK Nomme United II
24/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme United II	0-3 HT 0-0	JK Nomme Kalju II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	30	19	5	6	81	39	62
2	Viimsi JK	30	15	5	10	56	31	50
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	30	14	6	10	72	53	48
4	FC Elva	30	14	6	10	47	44	48
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	27	12	5	10	45	55	41
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	29	13	2	14	60	55	41
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	29	10	7	12	52	55	37
8	JK Nomme United II	29	9	6	14	47	60	33
9	FC Tallinn	29	7	8	14	35	63	29
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	29	6	4	19	36	76	22

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme Kalju II	JK Nomme United II
Tartu JK Welco	0-3 L	2-1 W
FC Elva	0-1 L	0-1 L
FC Tallinn	2-0 W	1-1 D
JK Tallinna Kalev	0-3 L	2-1 W
Maardu Linnameeskond	1-4 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: JK Nomme United II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme Kalju II

LLLLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
10/09	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-4	1-5	3	5	L
06/09	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
29/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
23/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	2-4	2	3	L
20/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
17/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
10/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-3	0	4	L
01/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-4	5	2	L
25/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-5	5	4	L

JK Nomme United II

LWLWDLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	9	6	W
10/09	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
06/09	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-2	4	6	L
30/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	16	9	L
24/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-4	3	5	L
20/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
17/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
08/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
01/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	2-1	5	2	W
27/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-3	1	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme Kalju II vs JK Nomme United II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JK Nomme United II win (62%). Probabilities: JK Nomme Kalju II 20%, draw 19%, JK Nomme United II 62%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme Kalju II vs JK Nomme United II?

The model expects 3.48 goals (JK Nomme Kalju II 1.21 · JK Nomme United II 2.27), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme Kalju II vs JK Nomme United II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.