Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 13/09, 11:30

Prediction: FC Flora Tallinn II vs FC Elva

Team pages: FC Flora Tallinn II · FC Elva

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

FC Flora Tallinn II1.98

FC Elva1.36

1X2

52% 22% 26%

FC Flora Tallinn II Draw FC Elva

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Flora Tallinn II 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWDWLW

FC Elva 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWLWDWWL

Head-to-head

FC Flora Tallinn II 3–1–2 FC Elva (6 last)

FC Elva0-0FC Flora Tallinn II
FC Elva0-3FC Flora Tallinn II
FC Flora Tallinn II3-2FC Elva
FC Elva2-0FC Flora Tallinn II
FC Flora Tallinn II2-0FC Elva
FC Flora Tallinn II0-1FC Elva

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Flora Tallinn II 1541 · FC Elva 1517

	FC Flora Tallinn II	Draw	FC Elva
Our model	51%	24%	25%
Market	52%	21%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Flora Tallinn II: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Flora Tallinn II	FC Elva
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.4	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.4	2.7 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:50 +13’	1.73	4.20	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Flora Tallinn II 3–1–2 FC Elva

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Flora Tallinn II
22/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	0-3 HT 0-1	FC Flora Tallinn II
23/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	3-2 HT 1-2	FC Elva
02/11/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Flora Tallinn II
12/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Elva
29/05/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Elva

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	28	17	5	6	76	39	56
2	Viimsi JK	28	15	5	8	56	28	50
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	28	14	5	9	69	49	47
4	FC Elva	28	13	5	10	44	42	44
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	27	12	5	10	45	55	41
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	28	12	2	14	55	54	38
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	28	10	6	12	50	53	36
8	JK Nomme United II	28	8	6	14	46	60	30
9	FC Tallinn	27	7	7	13	33	57	28
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	28	6	4	18	36	73	22

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Flora Tallinn II	FC Elva
JK Nomme Kalju II	5-1 W	1-0 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	2-6 L	2-2 D
JK Tallinna Kalev	5-0 W	0-1 L
Viimsi JK	2-1 W	0-5 L
Tartu JK Welco	1-2 L	2-1 W
Maardu Linnameeskond	1-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Flora Tallinn II

LWLWLWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	4-0	5-1	9	5	W
04/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	2-6	2	5	L
29/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	3-0	5-0	11	3	W
24/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
21/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-1	2	9	W
15/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
10/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	3-0	3-0	7	4	W
01/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
25/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	5-0	6	4	W
18/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-3	7	4	L

FC Elva

DLDWLWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-5	1	4	L
06/09	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
30/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
24/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
20/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	4	9	W
15/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
08/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
01/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-2	7	3	D
16/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	11	5	L
05/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-2	6	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Flora Tallinn II vs FC Elva?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Flora Tallinn II win (52%). Probabilities: FC Flora Tallinn II 52%, draw 22%, FC Elva 26%.

How many goals are expected in FC Flora Tallinn II vs FC Elva?

The model expects 3.34 goals (FC Flora Tallinn II 1.98 · FC Elva 1.36), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Flora Tallinn II vs FC Elva?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.