Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 13/09, 11:30

Prediction: FC Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn U21

Team pages: FC Tallinn · FC Levadia Tallinn U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.85Total

FC Tallinn1.66

FC Levadia Tallinn U212.19

1X2

29% 22% 50%

FC Tallinn Draw FC Levadia Tallinn U21

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Tallinn 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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FC Levadia Tallinn U21 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWLLWLWD

Head-to-head

FC Tallinn 3–3 FC Levadia Tallinn U21 (6 last)

FC Levadia Tallinn U212-1FC Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn U214-0FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn4-2FC Levadia Tallinn U21
FC Tallinn2-3FC Levadia Tallinn U21
FC Levadia Tallinn U215-6FC Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn U210-2FC Tallinn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Tallinn 1510 · FC Levadia Tallinn U21 1531

	FC Tallinn	Draw	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
Our model	29%	22%	49%
Market	29%	21%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.85 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Tallinn	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	2.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	2.9 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.6	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X4.20

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.752.00

Under 3.751.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
08:00 +3’	3.10	4.20	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Tallinn 3–0–3 FC Levadia Tallinn U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Tallinn
21/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	4-0 HT 3-0	FC Tallinn
27/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	4-2 HT 1-0	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
18/09/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	2-3 HT 0-2	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
26/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	5-6 HT 3-4	FC Tallinn
19/06/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Tallinn

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	28	17	5	6	76	39	56
2	Viimsi JK	28	15	5	8	56	28	50
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	28	14	5	9	69	49	47
4	FC Elva	28	13	5	10	44	42	44
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	27	12	5	10	45	55	41
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	28	12	2	14	55	54	38
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	28	10	6	12	50	53	36
8	JK Nomme United II	28	8	6	14	46	60	30
9	FC Tallinn	27	7	7	13	33	57	28
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	28	6	4	18	36	73	22

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Tallinn	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
Viimsi JK	2-1 W	0-5 L
JK Nomme Kalju II	0-2 L	2-0 W
JK Nomme United II	1-1 D	2-1 W
Maardu Linnameeskond	0-1 L	2-4 L
JK Tallinna Kalev	1-1 D	3-2 W
FC Flora Tallinn II	1-0 W	6-2 W
Tartu JK Welco	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Tallinn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
29/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
23/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
20/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
15/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
08/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
01/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
18/07	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
04/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	3-2	4-3	7	9	W
21/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-4	4	3	L

FC Levadia Tallinn U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
04/09	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	6-2	4	5	W
29/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	2-4	5	3	L
23/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	9	5	W
20/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	2-4	6	2	L
15/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-5	4	9	L
08/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
01/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-2	7	3	D
18/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
11/07	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-2	8	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Levadia Tallinn U21 win (50%). Probabilities: FC Tallinn 29%, draw 22%, FC Levadia Tallinn U21 50%.

How many goals are expected in FC Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn U21?

The model expects 3.85 goals (FC Tallinn 1.66 · FC Levadia Tallinn U21 2.19), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn U21?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.