Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 10/09, 16:30

Prediction: FC Tallinn vs Maardu Linnameeskond

Team pages: FC Tallinn · Maardu Linnameeskond

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

FC Tallinn1.46

Maardu Linnameeskond1.85

1X2

30% 24% 46%

FC Tallinn Draw Maardu Linnameeskond

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Tallinn 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWDLDLLW

Maardu Linnameeskond 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWLWWW

Head-to-head

FC Tallinn 0–2–1 Maardu Linnameeskond (3 last)

Maardu Linnameeskond1-0FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn0-0Maardu Linnameeskond
Maardu Linnameeskond1-1FC Tallinn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Tallinn 1513 · Maardu Linnameeskond 1549

	FC Tallinn	Draw	Maardu Linnameeskond
Our model	30%	25%	46%
Market	30%	23%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Tallinn	Maardu Linnameeskond
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	2.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	2.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.6	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.90

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.88

Under 3.751.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:50 +17’	3.00	3.90	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Tallinn 0–2–1 Maardu Linnameeskond

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Maardu Linnameeskond	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Tallinn
28/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	0-0 HT 0-0	Maardu Linnameeskond
23/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Maardu Linnameeskond	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Tallinn

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	27	17	4	6	76	39	55
2	Viimsi JK	27	14	5	8	51	28	47
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	27	13	5	9	64	48	44
4	FC Elva	27	13	5	9	44	37	44
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	27	12	5	10	45	55	41
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	27	12	1	14	55	54	37
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	27	10	6	11	49	51	36
8	FC Tallinn	27	7	7	13	33	57	28
9	JK Nomme United II	27	7	6	14	44	59	27
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	27	6	4	17	35	68	22

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Tallinn	Maardu Linnameeskond
Viimsi JK	2-1 W	1-2 L
JK Nomme Kalju II	0-2 L	4-1 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	1-2 L	4-2 W
JK Nomme United II	1-1 D	2-1 W
JK Tallinna Kalev	1-1 D	3-1 W
FC Flora Tallinn II	1-0 W	3-1 W
Tartu JK Welco	2-0 W	1-8 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Maardu Linnameeskond (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Tallinn

LWWWDLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
29/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-2	5	8	L
23/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
20/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
15/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
08/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
01/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
18/07	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
04/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	3-2	4-3	7	9	W
21/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-4	4	3	L

Maardu Linnameeskond

WLWWLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
29/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	4-2	5	3	W
24/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	8	5	W
20/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-1	8	9	L
15/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
08/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	3	2	L
01/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	4-1	6	2	W
18/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	3-1	5	4	W
13/07	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-4	1-8	3	3	L
09/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	3-2	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Tallinn vs Maardu Linnameeskond?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Maardu Linnameeskond win (46%). Probabilities: FC Tallinn 30%, draw 24%, Maardu Linnameeskond 46%.

How many goals are expected in FC Tallinn vs Maardu Linnameeskond?

The model expects 3.32 goals (FC Tallinn 1.46 · Maardu Linnameeskond 1.85), with a 56% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Tallinn vs Maardu Linnameeskond?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.