Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 10/09, 16:30

Prediction: JK Nomme Kalju II vs FC Flora Tallinn II

Team pages: JK Nomme Kalju II · FC Flora Tallinn II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

JK Nomme Kalju II1.4

FC Flora Tallinn II2.24

1X2

23% 20% 57%

JK Nomme Kalju II Draw FC Flora Tallinn II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme Kalju II 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLLLWL

FC Flora Tallinn II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLWDWL

Head-to-head

JK Nomme Kalju II 2–4 FC Flora Tallinn II (6 last)

FC Flora Tallinn II3-0JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme Kalju II0-5FC Flora Tallinn II
FC Flora Tallinn II3-1JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme Kalju II3-0FC Flora Tallinn II
FC Flora Tallinn II1-2JK Nomme Kalju II
FC Flora Tallinn II3-0JK Nomme Kalju II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme Kalju II 1413 · FC Flora Tallinn II 1508

	JK Nomme Kalju II	Draw	FC Flora Tallinn II
Our model	23%	22%	56%
Market	24%	19%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Flora Tallinn II (rating 1413 vs 1508).
H2H favours FC Flora Tallinn II: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme Kalju II	FC Flora Tallinn II
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.6	2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.2	3.2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.4	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.75

X4.75

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.80

Under 42.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:47 +5’	3.75	4.75	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme Kalju II 2–0–4 FC Flora Tallinn II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	3-0 HT 3-0	JK Nomme Kalju II
25/07/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	0-5 HT 0-2	FC Flora Tallinn II
19/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	3-1 HT 2-1	JK Nomme Kalju II
18/09/25 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	3-0 HT 0-0	FC Flora Tallinn II
26/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	1-2 HT 0-0	JK Nomme Kalju II
19/05/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	3-0 HT 1-0	JK Nomme Kalju II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	27	17	4	6	76	39	55
2	Viimsi JK	27	14	5	8	51	28	47
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	27	13	5	9	64	48	44
4	FC Elva	27	13	5	9	44	37	44
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	27	12	5	10	45	55	41
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	27	12	1	14	55	54	37
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	27	10	6	11	49	51	36
8	FC Tallinn	27	7	7	13	33	57	28
9	JK Nomme United II	27	7	6	14	44	59	27
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	27	6	4	17	35	68	22

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme Kalju II	FC Flora Tallinn II
FC Elva	0-1 L	0-0 D
FC Tallinn	2-0 W	0-1 L
Tartu JK Welco	2-4 L	1-2 L
JK Tallinna Kalev	0-3 L	5-0 W
JK Nomme United II	0-2 L	1-1 D
Maardu Linnameeskond	1-4 L	1-3 L
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	0-2 L	2-6 L
Viimsi JK	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Flora Tallinn II (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme Kalju II

DLLLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
29/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
23/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	2-4	2	3	L
20/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
17/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
10/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-3	0	4	L
01/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-4	5	2	L
25/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-5	5	4	L
18/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
11/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	2-2	1	1	D

FC Flora Tallinn II

DLWLWLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	2-6	2	5	L
29/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	3-0	5-0	11	3	W
24/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
21/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-1	2	9	W
15/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
10/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	3-0	3-0	7	4	W
01/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
25/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	5-0	6	4	W
18/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-3	7	4	L
12/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-1	10	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme Kalju II vs FC Flora Tallinn II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Flora Tallinn II win (57%). Probabilities: JK Nomme Kalju II 23%, draw 20%, FC Flora Tallinn II 57%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme Kalju II vs FC Flora Tallinn II?

The model expects 3.64 goals (JK Nomme Kalju II 1.4 · FC Flora Tallinn II 2.24), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme Kalju II vs FC Flora Tallinn II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.