Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 10/09, 16:30

Prediction: JK Nomme United II vs JK Tallinna Kalev

Team pages: JK Nomme United II · JK Tallinna Kalev

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.96Total

JK Nomme United II1.94

JK Tallinna Kalev2.02

1X2

38% 22% 41%

JK Nomme United II Draw JK Tallinna Kalev

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme United II 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLWDLLL

JK Tallinna Kalev 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWDWWLLD

Head-to-head

JK Nomme United II 0–1–2 JK Tallinna Kalev (3 last)

JK Tallinna Kalev3-1JK Nomme United II
JK Nomme United II1-2JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Tallinna Kalev4-4JK Nomme United II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme United II 1434 · JK Tallinna Kalev 1546

	JK Nomme United II	Draw	JK Tallinna Kalev
Our model	37%	22%	40%
Market	38%	21%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.96 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Tallinna Kalev (rating 1434 vs 1546).
H2H favours JK Tallinna Kalev: 2-1-0.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme United II	JK Tallinna Kalev
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.8	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.9	3.8 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.5	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.38

X4.20

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 42.00

Under 41.80

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:58 +9’	2.38	4.20	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme United II 0–1–2 JK Tallinna Kalev

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	3-1 HT 2-0	JK Nomme United II
18/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme United II	1-2 HT 1-0	JK Tallinna Kalev
01/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	4-4 HT 2-1	JK Nomme United II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	27	17	4	6	76	39	55
2	Viimsi JK	27	14	5	8	51	28	47
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	27	13	5	9	64	48	44
4	FC Elva	27	13	5	9	44	37	44
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	27	12	5	10	45	55	41
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	27	12	1	14	55	54	37
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	27	10	6	11	49	51	36
8	FC Tallinn	27	7	7	13	33	57	28
9	JK Nomme United II	27	7	6	14	44	59	27
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	27	6	4	17	35	68	22

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme United II	JK Tallinna Kalev
Maardu Linnameeskond	1-2 L	1-3 L
FC Elva	0-1 L	1-0 W
Viimsi JK	1-4 L	2-1 W
FC Tallinn	1-1 D	1-1 D
JK Nomme Kalju II	2-0 W	3-0 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	1-2 L	2-3 L
Tartu JK Welco	2-1 W	1-1 D
FC Flora Tallinn II	1-1 D	0-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme United II

DLLWLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-2	4	6	L
30/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	16	9	L
24/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-4	3	5	L
20/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
17/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
08/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
01/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	2-1	5	2	W
27/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-3	1	7	L
18/07	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
12/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-1	3	1	D

JK Tallinna Kalev

DLWWDWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-1	11	4	D
29/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-5	6	3	L
24/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
20/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	3-0	9	5	W
15/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
08/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
03/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
18/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	8	4	W
11/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-3	7	6	L
03/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	3-1	3-3	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme United II vs JK Tallinna Kalev?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JK Tallinna Kalev win (41%). Probabilities: JK Nomme United II 38%, draw 22%, JK Tallinna Kalev 41%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme United II vs JK Tallinna Kalev?

The model expects 3.96 goals (JK Nomme United II 1.94 · JK Tallinna Kalev 2.02), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme United II vs JK Tallinna Kalev?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.