Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 10/09, 18:00

Prediction: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 vs Tartu JK Welco

Team pages: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 · Tartu JK Welco

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.35Total

FC Levadia Tallinn U211.81

Tartu JK Welco2.54

1X2

27% 20% 53%

FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Draw Tartu JK Welco

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Levadia Tallinn U21 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Tartu JK Welco 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn U21 0–2–4 Tartu JK Welco (6 last)

Tartu JK Welco4-2FC Levadia Tallinn U21
FC Levadia Tallinn U211-3Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco3-2FC Levadia Tallinn U21
FC Levadia Tallinn U211-1Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco3-0FC Levadia Tallinn U21
FC Levadia Tallinn U213-3Tartu JK Welco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Levadia Tallinn U21 1536 · Tartu JK Welco 1562

	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	Draw	Tartu JK Welco
Our model	27%	20%	53%
Market	26%	21%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 4.35 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tartu JK Welco: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	Tartu JK Welco
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 2.1	2.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	60/0/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.3	2.2 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.40

X4.33

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:56 +10’	3.40	4.33	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Levadia Tallinn U21 0–2–4 Tartu JK Welco

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/08/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	4-2 HT 2-1	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
18/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	1-3 HT 1-0	Tartu JK Welco
17/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	3-2 HT 0-0	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
27/09/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	1-1 HT 1-0	Tartu JK Welco
12/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	3-0 HT 1-0	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
29/05/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	3-3 HT 1-1	Tartu JK Welco

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	27	17	4	6	76	39	55
2	Viimsi JK	27	14	5	8	51	28	47
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	27	13	5	9	64	48	44
4	FC Elva	27	13	5	9	44	37	44
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	27	12	5	10	45	55	41
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	27	12	1	14	55	54	37
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	27	10	6	11	49	51	36
8	FC Tallinn	27	7	7	13	33	57	28
9	JK Nomme United II	27	7	6	14	44	59	27
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	27	6	4	17	35	68	22

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	Tartu JK Welco
FC Flora Tallinn II	6-2 W	2-1 W
Maardu Linnameeskond	2-4 L	8-1 W
FC Tallinn	2-1 W	0-2 L
Viimsi JK	0-5 L	1-3 L
JK Nomme United II	2-1 W	1-2 L
FC Elva	2-2 D	1-2 L
JK Nomme Kalju II	2-0 W	4-2 W
JK Tallinna Kalev	3-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Levadia Tallinn U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	6-2	4	5	W
29/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	2-4	5	3	L
23/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	9	5	W
20/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	2-4	6	2	L
15/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-5	4	9	L
08/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
01/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-2	7	3	D
18/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
11/07	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-2	8	6	W
05/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	4-0	2	3	W

Tartu JK Welco

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
29/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
23/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	4-2	14	3	W
20/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	4-2	8	2	W
15/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
08/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-2	8	5	L
01/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
18/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-2	10	3	L
13/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	4-1	8-1	4	3	W
02/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	2-2	5	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Levadia Tallinn U21 vs Tartu JK Welco?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tartu JK Welco win (53%). Probabilities: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 27%, draw 20%, Tartu JK Welco 53%.

How many goals are expected in FC Levadia Tallinn U21 vs Tartu JK Welco?

The model expects 4.35 goals (FC Levadia Tallinn U21 1.81 · Tartu JK Welco 2.54), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Levadia Tallinn U21 vs Tartu JK Welco?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.