Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 06/09, 16:00

Prediction: FC Elva vs JK Nomme Kalju II

Team pages: FC Elva · JK Nomme Kalju II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

FC Elva2.38

JK Nomme Kalju II0.94

1X2

69% 18% 13%

FC Elva Draw JK Nomme Kalju II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Elva 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLDWLWDW

JK Nomme Kalju II 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DDLLLLLLLW

Head-to-head

FC Elva 2–2–2 JK Nomme Kalju II (6 last)

JK Nomme Kalju II2-2FC Elva
FC Elva2-4JK Nomme Kalju II
FC Elva0-1JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme Kalju II1-1FC Elva
FC Elva2-1JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme Kalju II0-2FC Elva

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Elva 1515 · JK Nomme Kalju II 1435

	FC Elva	Draw	JK Nomme Kalju II
Our model	68%	19%	12%
Market	70%	16%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Elva (rating 1515 vs 1435).
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Elva	JK Nomme Kalju II
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.3	0.9 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.2	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	2.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.50

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.93

2 (+1.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.93

Under 3.751.88

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
03:56 +8’	1.28	5.50	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Elva 2–2–2 JK Nomme Kalju II

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	2-2 HT 2-0	FC Elva
02/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	2-4 HT 1-3	JK Nomme Kalju II
04/10/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	0-1 HT 0-0	JK Nomme Kalju II
30/08/25 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Elva
11/05/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	2-1 HT 0-1	JK Nomme Kalju II
08/03/25 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Elva

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	26	17	3	6	75	38	54
2	Viimsi JK	27	14	5	8	51	28	47
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	27	13	5	9	64	48	44
4	FC Elva	26	12	5	9	43	37	41
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	26	11	5	10	43	54	38
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	27	12	1	14	55	54	37
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	26	10	5	11	48	50	35
8	FC Tallinn	27	7	7	13	33	57	28
9	JK Nomme United II	26	7	6	13	43	57	27
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	26	6	4	16	35	67	22

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Elva	JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme United II	1-0 W	0-2 L
FC Flora Tallinn II	0-0 D	0-3 L
Maardu Linnameeskond	1-0 W	1-4 L
JK Tallinna Kalev	0-1 L	0-3 L
Tartu JK Welco	2-1 W	2-4 L
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	2-2 D	0-2 L
Viimsi JK	1-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FC Elva (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Elva

LLDLDWLWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
24/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
20/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	4	9	W
15/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
08/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
01/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-2	7	3	D
16/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	11	5	L
05/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-2	6	1	D
22/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
18/06	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	1	9	L

JK Nomme Kalju II

DDLLLLLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
23/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	2-4	2	3	L
20/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
17/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
10/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-3	0	4	L
01/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-4	5	2	L
25/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-5	5	4	L
18/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
11/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	2-2	1	1	D
05/07	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-2	4	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Elva vs JK Nomme Kalju II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Elva win (69%). Probabilities: FC Elva 69%, draw 18%, JK Nomme Kalju II 13%.

How many goals are expected in FC Elva vs JK Nomme Kalju II?

The model expects 3.32 goals (FC Elva 2.38 · JK Nomme Kalju II 0.94), with a 57% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Elva vs JK Nomme Kalju II?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.