Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 05/09, 14:00

Prediction: JK Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu JK Welco

Team pages: JK Tallinna Kalev · Tartu JK Welco

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.17Total

JK Tallinna Kalev1.72

Tartu JK Welco2.45

1X2

26% 21% 53%

JK Tallinna Kalev Draw Tartu JK Welco

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Tallinna Kalev 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWWDWWLL

Tartu JK Welco 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLWWWL

Head-to-head

JK Tallinna Kalev 5–1 Tartu JK Welco (6 last)

JK Tallinna Kalev2-0Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco3-0JK Tallinna Kalev
Tartu JK Welco0-4JK Tallinna Kalev
Tartu JK Welco2-3JK Tallinna Kalev
Tartu JK Welco0-1JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Tallinna Kalev2-1Tartu JK Welco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Tallinna Kalev 1545 · Tartu JK Welco 1550

	JK Tallinna Kalev	Draw	Tartu JK Welco
Our model	26%	20%	53%
Market	26%	21%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 4.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours JK Tallinna Kalev: 5-0-1.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Tallinna Kalev	Tartu JK Welco
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.8	2.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/0/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.1	2.4 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.50

X4.20

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.88

Under 3.751.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
X	4.50 → 4.20▼	Bet365 4.20
2	1.53 → 1.70▲	Pinn 1.70 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:49 +3’	4.20	4.50	1.53
05:33 +6’	3.50▼	4.20▼	1.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:39 +1’	3.35	4.16	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 4

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Tallinna Kalev 5–0–1 Tartu JK Welco

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	2-0 HT 1-0	Tartu JK Welco
05/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	3-0 HT 1-0	JK Tallinna Kalev
15/07/23 Estonia Cup	Tartu JK Welco	0-4 HT 0-1	JK Tallinna Kalev
31/10/21 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	2-3 HT 1-3	JK Tallinna Kalev
12/08/21 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	0-1 HT 0-1	JK Tallinna Kalev
27/05/21 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	2-1 HT 2-1	Tartu JK Welco

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	26	17	3	6	75	38	54
2	Viimsi JK	27	14	5	8	51	28	47
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	27	13	5	9	64	48	44
4	FC Elva	26	12	5	9	43	37	41
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	26	11	5	10	43	54	38
6	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	27	12	1	14	55	54	37
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	26	10	5	11	48	50	35
8	FC Tallinn	27	7	7	13	33	57	28
9	JK Nomme United II	26	7	6	13	43	57	27
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	26	6	4	16	35	67	22

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Tallinna Kalev	Tartu JK Welco
FC Flora Tallinn II	0-5 L	2-1 W
Maardu Linnameeskond	1-3 L	8-1 W
JK Nomme Kalju II	3-0 W	4-2 W
FC Elva	1-0 W	1-2 L
FC Tallinn	1-1 D	0-2 L
Viimsi JK	2-1 W	1-3 L
JK Nomme United II	3-1 W	1-2 L
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	2-3 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: JK Tallinna Kalev (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Tallinna Kalev

WDLWWDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-5	6	3	L
24/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
20/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	3-0	9	5	W
15/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
08/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
03/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
18/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	8	4	W
11/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-3	7	6	L
03/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	3-1	3-3	4	5	D
21/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	5-1	7	1	W

Tartu JK Welco

WDWLLLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
23/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	4-2	14	3	W
20/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	4-2	8	2	W
15/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
08/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-2	8	5	L
01/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
18/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-2	10	3	L
13/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	4-1	8-1	4	3	W
02/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	2-2	5	8	D
21/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	3-1	5-2	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu JK Welco?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tartu JK Welco win (53%). Probabilities: JK Tallinna Kalev 26%, draw 21%, Tartu JK Welco 53%.

How many goals are expected in JK Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu JK Welco?

The model expects 4.17 goals (JK Tallinna Kalev 1.72 · Tartu JK Welco 2.45), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu JK Welco?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.