Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 23/08, 14:00

Prediction: JK Nomme Kalju II vs Tartu JK Welco

Team pages: JK Nomme Kalju II · Tartu JK Welco

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.41Total

JK Nomme Kalju II1.26

Tartu JK Welco3.16

1X2

11% 15% 74%

JK Nomme Kalju II Draw Tartu JK Welco

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-3

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme Kalju II 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

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Tartu JK Welco 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

JK Nomme Kalju II 1–5 Tartu JK Welco (6 last)

Tartu JK Welco4-2JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme Kalju II1-5Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco5-2JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme Kalju II0-3Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco0-1JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme Kalju II0-4Tartu JK Welco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme Kalju II 1361 · Tartu JK Welco 1603

	JK Nomme Kalju II	Draw	Tartu JK Welco
Our model	11%	15%	74%
Market	11%	15%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 4.41 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tartu JK Welco (rating 1361 vs 1603).
H2H favours Tartu JK Welco: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme Kalju II	Tartu JK Welco
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 3	3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.2	1.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	70/0/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.3	2.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

18.00

X6.25

21.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.82

2 (-2.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.252.00

Under 4.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.00 → 8.00▼	Pinn 8.13
X	7.00 → 6.25▼	Pinn 7.99 ★
2	1.17 → 1.22▲	Bet365 1.22

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.3% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
04:43 +13’	9.00	7.00	1.17
10:02 +4’	8.00▼	6.25▼	1.22▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:17 +1’	7.79	7.80	1.15
08:11 +1’	8.13▲	7.99▲	1.14▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 4.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme Kalju II 1–0–5 Tartu JK Welco

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	4-2 HT 2-2	JK Nomme Kalju II
11/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	1-5 HT 0-1	Tartu JK Welco
23/10/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	5-2 HT 2-2	JK Nomme Kalju II
19/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	0-3 HT 0-0	Tartu JK Welco
19/06/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	0-1 HT 0-1	JK Nomme Kalju II
01/05/25 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	0-4 HT 0-2	Tartu JK Welco

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	24	16	3	5	70	33	51
2	Viimsi JK	24	12	5	7	43	24	41
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	24	12	4	8	57	42	40
4	FC Elva	24	11	4	9	42	37	37
5	JK Tallinna Kalev	24	10	5	9	47	42	35
6	Maardu Linnameeskond	24	9	5	10	36	51	32
7	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	24	10	1	13	45	47	31
8	JK Nomme United II	24	7	6	11	42	52	27
9	FC Tallinn	24	6	7	11	30	52	25
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	24	5	4	15	31	63	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme Kalju II	Tartu JK Welco
JK Nomme United II	0-2 L	1-2 L
FC Flora Tallinn II	0-3 L	2-1 W
Maardu Linnameeskond	1-4 L	8-1 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	0-2 L	4-2 W
Viimsi JK	2-2 D	2-2 D
FC Elva	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tartu JK Welco (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme Kalju II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
17/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
10/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-3	0	4	L
01/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-4	5	2	L
25/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-5	5	4	L
18/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
11/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	2-2	1	1	D
05/07	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-2	4	1	D
21/06	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-5	1	1	L
18/06	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	1	1	L

Tartu JK Welco

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	4-2	8	2	W
15/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
08/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-2	8	5	L
01/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
18/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-2	10	3	L
13/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	4-1	8-1	4	3	W
02/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	2-2	5	8	D
21/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	3-1	5-2	3	3	W
18/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	3-1	4	4	W
13/06	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	4-0	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme Kalju II vs Tartu JK Welco?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tartu JK Welco win (74%). Probabilities: JK Nomme Kalju II 11%, draw 15%, Tartu JK Welco 74%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme Kalju II vs Tartu JK Welco?

The model expects 4.41 goals (JK Nomme Kalju II 1.26 · Tartu JK Welco 3.16), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme Kalju II vs Tartu JK Welco?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.