Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 24/08, 18:00

Prediction: FC Elva vs FC Flora Tallinn II

Team pages: FC Elva · FC Flora Tallinn II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

FC Elva1.8

FC Flora Tallinn II1.6

1X2

42% 23% 34%

FC Elva Draw FC Flora Tallinn II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Elva 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWDWLW

FC Flora Tallinn II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDLWLWLW

Head-to-head

FC Elva 2–1–3 FC Flora Tallinn II (6 last)

FC Elva0-3FC Flora Tallinn II
FC Flora Tallinn II3-2FC Elva
FC Elva2-0FC Flora Tallinn II
FC Flora Tallinn II2-0FC Elva
FC Flora Tallinn II0-1FC Elva
FC Elva2-2FC Flora Tallinn II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Elva 1568 · FC Flora Tallinn II 1514

	FC Elva	Draw	FC Flora Tallinn II
Our model	42%	24%	34%
Market	43%	23%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Elva (rating 1568 vs 1514).
H2H favours FC Flora Tallinn II: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Elva	FC Flora Tallinn II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.3	3.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X4.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.93

Under 3.751.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:24 +7’	2.10	4.00	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Elva 2–1–3 FC Flora Tallinn II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	0-3 HT 0-1	FC Flora Tallinn II
23/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	3-2 HT 1-2	FC Elva
02/11/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Flora Tallinn II
12/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Elva
29/05/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Elva
03/05/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	2-2 HT 0-1	FC Flora Tallinn II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	24	16	3	5	70	33	51
2	Viimsi JK	24	12	5	7	43	24	41
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	24	12	4	8	57	42	40
4	FC Elva	24	11	4	9	42	37	37
5	JK Tallinna Kalev	24	10	5	9	47	42	35
6	Maardu Linnameeskond	24	9	5	10	36	51	32
7	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	24	10	1	13	45	47	31
8	JK Nomme United II	24	7	6	11	42	52	27
9	FC Tallinn	24	6	7	11	30	52	25
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	24	5	4	15	31	63	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Elva	FC Flora Tallinn II
Maardu Linnameeskond	1-0 W	1-3 L
Tartu JK Welco	2-1 W	1-2 L
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	2-2 D	0-4 L
Viimsi JK	3-1 W	2-1 W
FC Tallinn	3-0 W	0-1 L
JK Nomme Kalju II	2-2 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Elva (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Elva

LWLDWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	4	9	W
15/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
08/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
01/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-2	7	3	D
16/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
11/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-0	7	7	W
05/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-2	6	1	D
22/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
11/06	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-3	4-3	3	6	W
01/06	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-2	2	3	L

FC Flora Tallinn II

DLLDLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-1	2	9	W
15/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
10/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	3-0	3-0	7	4	W
01/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
25/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	5-0	6	4	W
18/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-3	7	4	L
12/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-1	10	1	D
09/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
05/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-4	6	3	L
30/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	3-3	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Elva vs FC Flora Tallinn II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Elva win (42%). Probabilities: FC Elva 42%, draw 23%, FC Flora Tallinn II 34%.

How many goals are expected in FC Elva vs FC Flora Tallinn II?

The model expects 3.41 goals (FC Elva 1.8 · FC Flora Tallinn II 1.6), with a 56% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Elva vs FC Flora Tallinn II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.