Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 24/08, 18:00

Prediction: JK Tallinna Kalev vs Maardu Linnameeskond

Team pages: JK Tallinna Kalev · Maardu Linnameeskond

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.91Total

JK Tallinna Kalev2.23

Maardu Linnameeskond1.68

1X2

50% 22% 29%

JK Tallinna Kalev Draw Maardu Linnameeskond

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

JK Tallinna Kalev 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWWDWW

Maardu Linnameeskond 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

JK Tallinna Kalev 2–4–0 Maardu Linnameeskond (6 last)

JK Tallinna Kalev3-3Maardu Linnameeskond
Maardu Linnameeskond1-1JK Tallinna Kalev
Maardu Linnameeskond1-1JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Tallinna Kalev4-2Maardu Linnameeskond
Maardu Linnameeskond1-2JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Tallinna Kalev2-2Maardu Linnameeskond

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Tallinna Kalev 1567 · Maardu Linnameeskond 1517

	JK Tallinna Kalev	Draw	Maardu Linnameeskond
Our model	50%	22%	29%
Market	50%	21%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.91 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Tallinna Kalev (rating 1567 vs 1517).
H2H favours JK Tallinna Kalev: 2-4-0.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Tallinna Kalev	Maardu Linnameeskond
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.4	1.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 6.9	2.9 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:22 +9’	1.80	4.20	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Tallinna Kalev 2–4–0 Maardu Linnameeskond

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/07/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	3-3 HT 3-1	Maardu Linnameeskond
03/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Maardu Linnameeskond	1-1 HT 0-0	JK Tallinna Kalev
21/11/21 Estonia Esiliiga	Maardu Linnameeskond	1-1 HT 0-0	JK Tallinna Kalev
23/09/21 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	4-2 HT 1-0	Maardu Linnameeskond
02/08/21 Estonia Esiliiga	Maardu Linnameeskond	1-2 HT 0-1	JK Tallinna Kalev
09/05/21 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	2-2 HT 1-1	Maardu Linnameeskond

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	24	16	3	5	70	33	51
2	Viimsi JK	24	12	5	7	43	24	41
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	24	12	4	8	57	42	40
4	FC Elva	24	11	4	9	42	37	37
5	JK Tallinna Kalev	24	10	5	9	47	42	35
6	Maardu Linnameeskond	24	9	5	10	36	51	32
7	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	24	10	1	13	45	47	31
8	JK Nomme United II	24	7	6	11	42	52	27
9	FC Tallinn	24	6	7	11	30	52	25
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	24	5	4	15	31	63	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Tallinna Kalev	Maardu Linnameeskond
JK Nomme Kalju II	3-0 W	4-1 W
FC Elva	1-0 W	0-1 L
FC Tallinn	1-1 D	1-0 W
Viimsi JK	2-1 W	1-2 L
FC Flora Tallinn II	1-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Tallinna Kalev

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	3-0	9	5	W
15/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
08/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
03/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
18/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	8	4	W
11/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-3	7	6	L
03/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	3-1	3-3	4	5	D
21/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	5-1	7	1	W
18/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	2-1	12	5	W
14/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-3	6	6	L

Maardu Linnameeskond

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-1	8	9	L
15/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
08/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	3	2	L
01/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	4-1	6	2	W
18/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	3-1	5	4	W
13/07	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-4	1-8	3	3	L
09/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	3-2	6	5	W
03/07	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-3	3-3	4	5	D
22/06	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
18/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	15	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Tallinna Kalev vs Maardu Linnameeskond?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Tallinna Kalev win (50%). Probabilities: JK Tallinna Kalev 50%, draw 22%, Maardu Linnameeskond 29%.

How many goals are expected in JK Tallinna Kalev vs Maardu Linnameeskond?

The model expects 3.91 goals (JK Tallinna Kalev 2.23 · Maardu Linnameeskond 1.68), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Tallinna Kalev vs Maardu Linnameeskond?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.