Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 20/08, 11:30

Prediction: FC Elva vs Maardu Linnameeskond

Team pages: FC Elva · Maardu Linnameeskond

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

FC Elva2.14

Maardu Linnameeskond1.61

1X2

50% 22% 29%

FC Elva Draw Maardu Linnameeskond

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Elva 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWWDWL

Maardu Linnameeskond 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLWWLW

Head-to-head

FC Elva 2–4 Maardu Linnameeskond (6 last)

FC Elva4-3Maardu Linnameeskond
Maardu Linnameeskond0-3FC Elva
Maardu Linnameeskond2-1FC Elva
FC Elva0-1Maardu Linnameeskond
FC Elva0-6Maardu Linnameeskond
FC Elva1-2Maardu Linnameeskond

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Elva 1589 · Maardu Linnameeskond 1516

	FC Elva	Draw	Maardu Linnameeskond
Our model	49%	22%	28%
Market	50%	21%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Elva (rating 1589 vs 1516).
H2H favours Maardu Linnameeskond: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Elva	Maardu Linnameeskond
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.3	2.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	1.1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.6	2.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 2.00▲	Bet365 2.00
X	4.20 → 4.10▼	Bet365 4.10
2	3.10 → 2.63▼	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:47 +5’	1.80	4.20	3.10
01:55 +5’	2.00▲	4.10▼	2.63▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Elva 2–0–4 Maardu Linnameeskond

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	4-3 HT 1-3	Maardu Linnameeskond
12/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Maardu Linnameeskond	0-3 HT 0-2	FC Elva
14/10/21 Estonia Esiliiga	Maardu Linnameeskond	2-1 HT 0-0	FC Elva
25/08/21 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	0-1 HT 0-1	Maardu Linnameeskond
20/06/21 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	0-6 HT 0-4	Maardu Linnameeskond
01/11/20 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	1-2 HT 0-1	Maardu Linnameeskond

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	23	15	3	5	66	31	48
2	Viimsi JK	23	12	5	6	42	22	41
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	23	11	4	8	55	41	37
4	FC Elva	23	10	4	9	41	37	34
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	23	9	5	9	36	50	32
6	JK Tallinna Kalev	23	9	5	9	44	42	32
7	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	23	10	1	12	43	43	31
8	JK Nomme United II	23	7	5	11	41	51	26
9	FC Tallinn	23	6	6	11	29	51	24
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	23	5	4	14	31	60	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Elva	Maardu Linnameeskond
JK Tallinna Kalev	0-1 L	3-3 D
Tartu JK Welco	2-1 W	1-8 L
Viimsi JK	3-1 W	1-2 L
FC Tallinn	3-0 W	1-0 W
JK Nomme Kalju II	2-2 D	4-1 W
FC Flora Tallinn II	0-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Elva

WLWDWWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
08/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
01/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-2	7	3	D
22/07	Laanemaa Haapsalu Estonia Cup	2-0	6-0	–	–	W
16/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
11/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-0	7	7	W
05/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-2	6	1	D
30/06	FC Jarva-Jaani Estonia Cup	1-0	4-0	12	2	W
22/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
11/06	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-3	4-3	3	6	W

Maardu Linnameeskond

LWWDWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
08/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	3	2	L
01/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	4-1	6	2	W
18/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	3-1	5	4	W
13/07	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-4	1-8	3	3	L
09/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	3-2	6	5	W
03/07	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-3	3-3	4	5	D
22/06	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
18/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	15	1	W
11/06	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	3-1	3-4	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Elva vs Maardu Linnameeskond?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Elva win (50%). Probabilities: FC Elva 50%, draw 22%, Maardu Linnameeskond 29%.

How many goals are expected in FC Elva vs Maardu Linnameeskond?

The model expects 3.75 goals (FC Elva 2.14 · Maardu Linnameeskond 1.61), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Elva vs Maardu Linnameeskond?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.