Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 20/08, 14:00

Prediction: FC Tallinn vs JK Nomme United II

Team pages: FC Tallinn · JK Nomme United II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

FC Tallinn1.74

JK Nomme United II1.89

1X2

36% 22% 42%

FC Tallinn Draw JK Nomme United II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Tallinn 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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JK Nomme United II 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLDLLWLW

Head-to-head

FC Tallinn 1–1–0 JK Nomme United II (2 last)

FC Tallinn4-3JK Nomme United II
JK Nomme United II2-2FC Tallinn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Tallinn 1494 · JK Nomme United II 1438

	FC Tallinn	Draw	JK Nomme United II
Our model	35%	23%	41%
Market	37%	21%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Tallinn (rating 1494 vs 1438).
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Tallinn	JK Nomme United II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2	1.6 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.5 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	1.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X4.33

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:47 +5’	2.45	4.33	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Tallinn 1–1–0 JK Nomme United II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	4-3 HT 3-2	JK Nomme United II
22/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme United II	2-2 HT 0-1	FC Tallinn

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	23	15	3	5	66	31	48
2	Viimsi JK	23	12	5	6	42	22	41
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	23	11	4	8	55	41	37
4	FC Elva	23	10	4	9	41	37	34
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	23	9	5	9	36	50	32
6	JK Tallinna Kalev	23	9	5	9	44	42	32
7	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	23	10	1	12	43	43	31
8	JK Nomme United II	23	7	5	11	41	51	26
9	FC Tallinn	23	6	6	11	29	51	24
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	23	5	4	14	31	60	19

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Tallinn	JK Nomme United II
JK Tallinna Kalev	1-1 D	1-3 L
FC Flora Tallinn II	1-0 W	1-1 D
Tartu JK Welco	2-0 W	2-1 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	0-4 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Tallinn (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Tallinn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
08/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
01/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
28/07	Tallinna FC Zapoos Estonia Cup	0-0	4-1	2	6	W
18/07	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
11/07	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
04/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	3-2	4-3	7	9	W
21/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-4	4	3	L
18/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-3	0	5	L
13/06	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-4	5	3	L

JK Nomme United II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
08/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
01/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	2-1	5	2	W
27/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-3	1	7	L
18/07	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
12/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
04/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	2-3	3-4	12	9	L
30/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	3-3	2	6	D
21/06	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-3	2-5	6	3	L
18/06	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-2	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Tallinn vs JK Nomme United II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JK Nomme United II win (42%). Probabilities: FC Tallinn 36%, draw 22%, JK Nomme United II 42%.

How many goals are expected in FC Tallinn vs JK Nomme United II?

The model expects 3.64 goals (FC Tallinn 1.74 · JK Nomme United II 1.89), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Tallinn vs JK Nomme United II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.