Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 20/08, 14:00

Prediction: JK Nomme Kalju II vs JK Tallinna Kalev

Team pages: JK Nomme Kalju II · JK Tallinna Kalev

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.03Total

JK Nomme Kalju II1.7

JK Tallinna Kalev2.34

1X2

27% 21% 51%

JK Nomme Kalju II Draw JK Tallinna Kalev

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme Kalju II 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

WLLDDLLLLL

JK Tallinna Kalev 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWWDWW

Head-to-head

JK Nomme Kalju II 2–4 JK Tallinna Kalev (6 last)

JK Tallinna Kalev5-1JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme Kalju II0-4JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Tallinna Kalev2-0JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme Kalju II3-1JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Tallinna Kalev2-3JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Tallinna Kalev6-0JK Nomme Kalju II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme Kalju II 1397 · JK Tallinna Kalev 1586

	JK Nomme Kalju II	Draw	JK Tallinna Kalev
Our model	27%	21%	51%
Market	27%	21%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 4.03 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Tallinna Kalev (rating 1397 vs 1586).
H2H favours JK Tallinna Kalev: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme Kalju II	JK Tallinna Kalev
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.8	3.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.2	1.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.4	3.9 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.30

X4.20

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
23:47 +5’	3.30	4.20	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme Kalju II 2–0–4 JK Tallinna Kalev

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	5-1 HT 1-1	JK Nomme Kalju II
27/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	0-4 HT 0-3	JK Tallinna Kalev
29/01/17 Europe Friendlies	JK Tallinna Kalev	2-0 HT 1-0	JK Nomme Kalju II
02/10/16 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	3-1 HT 2-0	JK Tallinna Kalev
13/08/16 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	2-3 HT 0-0	JK Nomme Kalju II
08/06/16 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	6-0 HT 2-0	JK Nomme Kalju II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	23	15	3	5	66	31	48
2	Viimsi JK	23	12	5	6	42	22	41
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	23	11	4	8	55	41	37
4	FC Elva	23	10	4	9	41	37	34
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	23	9	5	9	36	50	32
6	JK Tallinna Kalev	23	9	5	9	44	42	32
7	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	23	10	1	12	43	43	31
8	JK Nomme United II	23	7	5	11	41	51	26
9	FC Tallinn	23	6	6	11	29	51	24
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	23	5	4	14	31	60	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme Kalju II	JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Nomme United II	0-2 L	3-1 W
Maardu Linnameeskond	1-4 L	3-3 D
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	0-2 L	2-3 L
Viimsi JK	2-2 D	2-1 W
FC Elva	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: JK Tallinna Kalev (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

JK Nomme Kalju II

WLLDDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
10/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-3	0	4	L
01/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-4	5	2	L
25/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-5	5	4	L
18/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
11/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	2-2	1	1	D
05/07	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-2	4	1	D
21/06	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-5	1	1	L
18/06	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	1	1	L
15/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	4-1	4	1	W

JK Tallinna Kalev

WWDLWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
11/08	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Cup	2-0	8-0	4	3	W
08/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
03/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
23/07	Tartu JK Tammeka U19 Estonia Cup	2-0	8-0	–	–	W
18/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	8	4	W
11/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-3	7	6	L
03/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	3-1	3-3	4	5	D
21/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	5-1	7	1	W
18/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	2-1	12	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme Kalju II vs JK Tallinna Kalev?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JK Tallinna Kalev win (51%). Probabilities: JK Nomme Kalju II 27%, draw 21%, JK Tallinna Kalev 51%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme Kalju II vs JK Tallinna Kalev?

The model expects 4.03 goals (JK Nomme Kalju II 1.7 · JK Tallinna Kalev 2.34), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme Kalju II vs JK Tallinna Kalev?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.