Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 20/08, 14:00

Prediction: Tartu JK Welco vs FC Levadia Tallinn U21

Team pages: Tartu JK Welco · FC Levadia Tallinn U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.11Total

Tartu JK Welco2.69

FC Levadia Tallinn U211.42

1X2

64% 18% 18%

Tartu JK Welco Draw FC Levadia Tallinn U21

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tartu JK Welco 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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FC Levadia Tallinn U21 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tartu JK Welco 4–2–0 FC Levadia Tallinn U21 (6 last)

FC Levadia Tallinn U211-3Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco3-2FC Levadia Tallinn U21
FC Levadia Tallinn U211-1Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco3-0FC Levadia Tallinn U21
FC Levadia Tallinn U213-3Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco1-0FC Levadia Tallinn U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tartu JK Welco 1573 · FC Levadia Tallinn U21 1532

	Tartu JK Welco	Draw	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
Our model	64%	18%	18%
Market	64%	18%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 4.11 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tartu JK Welco (rating 1573 vs 1532).
H2H favours Tartu JK Welco: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tartu JK Welco	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
Goals for / against (FT)	4.2 / 1.3	2.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.9 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/0/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.6	2.8 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.40

X5.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.98

Under 41.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
23:45 +7’	1.40	5.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tartu JK Welco 4–2–0 FC Levadia Tallinn U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	1-3 HT 1-0	Tartu JK Welco
17/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	3-2 HT 0-0	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
27/09/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	1-1 HT 1-0	Tartu JK Welco
12/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	3-0 HT 1-0	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
29/05/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	3-3 HT 1-1	Tartu JK Welco
20/04/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Levadia Tallinn U21

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	23	15	3	5	66	31	48
2	Viimsi JK	23	12	5	6	42	22	41
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	23	11	4	8	55	41	37
4	FC Elva	23	10	4	9	41	37	34
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	23	9	5	9	36	50	32
6	JK Tallinna Kalev	23	9	5	9	44	42	32
7	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	23	10	1	12	43	43	31
8	JK Nomme United II	23	7	5	11	41	51	26
9	FC Tallinn	23	6	6	11	29	51	24
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	23	5	4	14	31	60	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tartu JK Welco	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
FC Flora Tallinn II	2-1 W	4-0 W
FC Elva	1-2 L	2-2 D
JK Nomme United II	1-2 L	2-1 W
FC Tallinn	0-2 L	4-0 W
Viimsi JK	2-2 D	0-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tartu JK Welco

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
12/08	FC Kose Estonia Cup	4-0	8-0	–	–	W
08/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-2	8	5	L
01/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
23/07	Rumori Calcio II Estonia Cup	4-0	12-0	–	–	W
18/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-2	10	3	L
13/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	4-1	8-1	4	3	W
02/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	2-2	5	8	D
21/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	3-1	5-2	3	3	W
18/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	3-1	4	4	W

FC Levadia Tallinn U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-5	4	9	L
08/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
01/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-2	7	3	D
18/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
11/07	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-2	8	6	W
05/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	4-0	2	3	W
21/06	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	3-0	4-0	3	3	W
18/06	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-3	8	4	L
31/05	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	8	7	W
28/05	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	9	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tartu JK Welco vs FC Levadia Tallinn U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tartu JK Welco win (64%). Probabilities: Tartu JK Welco 64%, draw 18%, FC Levadia Tallinn U21 18%.

How many goals are expected in Tartu JK Welco vs FC Levadia Tallinn U21?

The model expects 4.11 goals (Tartu JK Welco 2.69 · FC Levadia Tallinn U21 1.42), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Tartu JK Welco vs FC Levadia Tallinn U21?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.