Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 15/08, 16:00

Prediction: Maardu Linnameeskond vs FC Tallinn

Team pages: Maardu Linnameeskond · FC Tallinn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

Maardu Linnameeskond2.17

FC Tallinn1.52

1X2

52% 22% 26%

Maardu Linnameeskond Draw FC Tallinn

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Maardu Linnameeskond 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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FC Tallinn 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Maardu Linnameeskond 0–2–0 FC Tallinn (2 last)

FC Tallinn0-0Maardu Linnameeskond
Maardu Linnameeskond1-1FC Tallinn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maardu Linnameeskond 1520 · FC Tallinn 1515

	Maardu Linnameeskond	Draw	FC Tallinn
Our model	52%	22%	26%
Market	52%	21%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maardu Linnameeskond	FC Tallinn
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.2	1.6 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.2	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.9	1.4 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
09:46 +7’	1.73	4.20	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Maardu Linnameeskond 0–2–0 FC Tallinn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	0-0 HT 0-0	Maardu Linnameeskond
23/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Maardu Linnameeskond	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Tallinn

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	22	14	3	5	64	30	45
2	Viimsi JK	22	11	5	6	37	22	38
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	22	11	4	7	54	39	37
4	FC Elva	22	10	4	8	41	36	34
5	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	22	10	1	11	43	38	31
6	Maardu Linnameeskond	22	8	5	9	35	50	29
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	22	8	5	9	43	42	29
8	FC Tallinn	22	6	6	10	29	50	24
9	JK Nomme United II	22	6	5	11	39	51	23
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	22	5	4	13	31	58	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maardu Linnameeskond	FC Tallinn
JK Nomme Kalju II	4-1 W	3-1 W
FC Flora Tallinn II	3-1 W	1-0 W
Tartu JK Welco	1-8 L	2-0 W
JK Tallinna Kalev	3-3 D	1-1 D
FC Elva	3-4 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Maardu Linnameeskond (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Maardu Linnameeskond

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	3	2	L
01/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	4-1	6	2	W
18/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	3-1	5	4	W
13/07	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-4	1-8	3	3	L
09/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	3-2	6	5	W
03/07	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-3	3-3	4	5	D
22/06	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
18/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	15	1	W
11/06	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	3-1	3-4	4	6	L
28/05	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	10	7	D

FC Tallinn

WLLLWLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
01/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
28/07	Tallinna FC Zapoos Estonia Cup	0-0	4-1	2	6	W
18/07	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
11/07	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
04/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	3-2	4-3	7	9	W
21/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-4	4	3	L
18/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-3	0	5	L
13/06	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
01/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	3-1	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maardu Linnameeskond vs FC Tallinn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maardu Linnameeskond win (52%). Probabilities: Maardu Linnameeskond 52%, draw 22%, FC Tallinn 26%.

How many goals are expected in Maardu Linnameeskond vs FC Tallinn?

The model expects 3.69 goals (Maardu Linnameeskond 2.17 · FC Tallinn 1.52), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Maardu Linnameeskond vs FC Tallinn?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.