Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 15/08, 18:00

Prediction: JK Tallinna Kalev vs FC Elva

Team pages: JK Tallinna Kalev · FC Elva

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.78Total

JK Tallinna Kalev1.76

FC Elva2.03

1X2

33% 23% 44%

JK Tallinna Kalev Draw FC Elva

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

JK Tallinna Kalev 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWWWDW

FC Elva 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWWWDW

Head-to-head

JK Tallinna Kalev 4–1–1 FC Elva (6 last)

FC Elva3-1JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Tallinna Kalev2-1FC Elva
FC Elva1-2JK Tallinna Kalev
FC Elva0-0JK Tallinna Kalev
FC Elva1-2JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Tallinna Kalev1-0FC Elva

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Tallinna Kalev 1549 · FC Elva 1575

	JK Tallinna Kalev	Draw	FC Elva
Our model	33%	23%	44%
Market	33%	23%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.78 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours JK Tallinna Kalev: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Tallinna Kalev	FC Elva
Goals for / against (FT)	3.5 / 1.4	2.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 6.6	3.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X4.00

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 42.00

Under 41.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 4.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.70▼	Bet365 2.70
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.00 → 2.05▲	Pinn 2.37 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
07:54 +3’	2.75	4.00	2.00
20:37 +50’	2.70▼	4.00	2.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:04 +1’	2.25	3.85	2.37

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Tallinna Kalev 4–1–1 FC Elva

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	3-1 HT 1-1	JK Tallinna Kalev
09/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	2-1 HT 0-1	FC Elva
30/10/25 Estonia Cup	FC Elva	1-2 HT 1-1	JK Tallinna Kalev
29/01/23 Europe Friendlies	FC Elva	0-0 HT 0-0	JK Tallinna Kalev
29/09/21 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	1-2 HT 1-2	JK Tallinna Kalev
14/07/21 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Elva

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	22	14	3	5	64	30	45
2	Viimsi JK	22	11	5	6	37	22	38
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	22	11	4	7	54	39	37
4	FC Elva	22	10	4	8	41	36	34
5	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	22	10	1	11	43	38	31
6	Maardu Linnameeskond	22	8	5	9	35	50	29
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	22	8	5	9	43	42	29
8	FC Tallinn	22	6	6	10	29	50	24
9	JK Nomme United II	22	6	5	11	39	51	23
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	22	5	4	13	31	58	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Tallinna Kalev	FC Elva
FC Tallinn	1-1 D	3-0 W
Viimsi JK	2-1 W	3-1 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	2-3 L	2-2 D
Maardu Linnameeskond	3-3 D	4-3 W
JK Nomme Kalju II	5-1 W	2-2 D
FC Flora Tallinn II	1-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Elva (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

JK Tallinna Kalev

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Cup	2-0	8-0	4	3	W
08/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
03/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
23/07	Tartu JK Tammeka U19 Estonia Cup	2-0	8-0	–	–	W
18/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	8	4	W
11/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-3	7	6	L
03/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	3-1	3-3	4	5	D
21/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	5-1	7	1	W
18/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	2-1	12	5	W
14/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-3	6	6	L

FC Elva

LWLWDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
01/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-2	7	3	D
22/07	Laanemaa Haapsalu Estonia Cup	2-0	6-0	–	–	W
16/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
11/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-0	7	7	W
05/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-2	6	1	D
30/06	FC Jarva-Jaani Estonia Cup	1-0	4-0	12	2	W
22/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
11/06	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-3	4-3	3	6	W
01/06	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-2	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Tallinna Kalev vs FC Elva?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Elva win (44%). Probabilities: JK Tallinna Kalev 33%, draw 23%, FC Elva 44%.

How many goals are expected in JK Tallinna Kalev vs FC Elva?

The model expects 3.78 goals (JK Tallinna Kalev 1.76 · FC Elva 2.03), with a 56% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Tallinna Kalev vs FC Elva?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.