Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 15/08, 18:00

Prediction: Tartu JK Welco vs FC Flora Tallinn II

Team pages: Tartu JK Welco · FC Flora Tallinn II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.97Total

Tartu JK Welco2.47

FC Flora Tallinn II1.5

1X2

58% 20% 22%

Tartu JK Welco Draw FC Flora Tallinn II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tartu JK Welco 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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FC Flora Tallinn II 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tartu JK Welco 2–4–0 FC Flora Tallinn II (6 last)

Tartu JK Welco3-3FC Flora Tallinn II
FC Flora Tallinn II1-6Tartu JK Welco
FC Flora Tallinn II1-1Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco0-0FC Flora Tallinn II
Tartu JK Welco4-2FC Flora Tallinn II
FC Flora Tallinn II3-3Tartu JK Welco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tartu JK Welco 1581 · FC Flora Tallinn II 1498

	Tartu JK Welco	Draw	FC Flora Tallinn II
Our model	58%	20%	22%
Market	58%	20%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.97 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tartu JK Welco (rating 1581 vs 1498).
H2H favours Tartu JK Welco: 2-4-0.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tartu JK Welco	FC Flora Tallinn II
Goals for / against (FT)	4.4 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.9 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/0/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.9	2.9 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.50

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 41.82

Under 41.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 4.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.79 ★
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
07:47 +11’	1.53	4.50	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:04 +1’	1.45	4.79	4.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tartu JK Welco 2–4–0 FC Flora Tallinn II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	3-3 HT 2-2	FC Flora Tallinn II
14/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	1-6 HT 1-2	Tartu JK Welco
09/11/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	1-1 HT 0-1	Tartu JK Welco
14/09/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Flora Tallinn II
25/05/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	4-2 HT 3-1	FC Flora Tallinn II
13/04/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	3-3 HT 2-1	Tartu JK Welco

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	22	14	3	5	64	30	45
2	Viimsi JK	22	11	5	6	37	22	38
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	22	11	4	7	54	39	37
4	FC Elva	22	10	4	8	41	36	34
5	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	22	10	1	11	43	38	31
6	Maardu Linnameeskond	22	8	5	9	35	50	29
7	JK Tallinna Kalev	22	8	5	9	43	42	29
8	FC Tallinn	22	6	6	10	29	50	24
9	JK Nomme United II	22	6	5	11	39	51	23
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	22	5	4	13	31	58	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tartu JK Welco	FC Flora Tallinn II
FC Elva	1-2 L	3-0 W
JK Nomme United II	1-2 L	1-1 D
FC Tallinn	0-2 L	0-1 L
Maardu Linnameeskond	8-1 W	1-3 L
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	3-1 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Flora Tallinn II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tartu JK Welco

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	FC Kose Estonia Cup	4-0	8-0	–	–	W
08/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-2	8	5	L
01/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
23/07	Rumori Calcio II Estonia Cup	4-0	12-0	–	–	W
18/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-2	10	3	L
13/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	4-1	8-1	4	3	W
02/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	2-2	5	8	D
21/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	3-1	5-2	3	3	W
18/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	3-1	4	4	W
13/06	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	4-0	7	3	W

FC Flora Tallinn II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	3-0	3-0	7	4	W
01/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
25/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	5-0	6	4	W
22/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Cup	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
18/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-3	7	4	L
12/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-1	10	1	D
09/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
05/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-4	6	3	L
30/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	3-3	5	6	D
22/06	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	3-0	13	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tartu JK Welco vs FC Flora Tallinn II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tartu JK Welco win (58%). Probabilities: Tartu JK Welco 58%, draw 20%, FC Flora Tallinn II 22%.

How many goals are expected in Tartu JK Welco vs FC Flora Tallinn II?

The model expects 3.97 goals (Tartu JK Welco 2.47 · FC Flora Tallinn II 1.5), with a 51% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Tartu JK Welco vs FC Flora Tallinn II?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.