Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 13/07, 18:00
Prediction: Maardu Linnameeskond vs Tartu JK Welco
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.83Total
Maardu Linnameeskond1.27
Tartu JK Welco2.56
1X2
Maardu Linnameeskond
Draw
Tartu JK Welco
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Maardu Linnameeskond
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Tartu JK Welco
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Maardu Linnameeskond
4–2
Tartu JK Welco
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maardu Linnameeskond 1513 · Tartu JK Welco 1588
| Maardu Linnameeskond | Draw | Tartu JK Welco | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 19% | 64% |
| Market | 17% | 18% | 65% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.83 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tartu JK Welco (rating 1513 vs 1588).
- H2H favours Maardu Linnameeskond: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Maardu Linnameeskond | Tartu JK Welco | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.8 | 2.6 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.1 | 1.8 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Maardu Linnameeskond 4–0–2 Tartu JK Welco
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga | Maardu Linnameeskond | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Tartu JK Welco |
| 21/03/26 Estonia Esiliiga | Tartu JK Welco | 5-1 HT 1-0 | Maardu Linnameeskond |
| 18/09/21 Estonia Esiliiga | Maardu Linnameeskond | 7-0 HT 4-0 | Tartu JK Welco |
| 14/07/21 Estonia Esiliiga | Tartu JK Welco | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Maardu Linnameeskond |
| 31/05/21 Estonia Esiliiga | Maardu Linnameeskond | 6-0 HT 5-0 | Tartu JK Welco |
| 30/09/18 Estonia Esiliiga | Tartu JK Welco | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Maardu Linnameeskond |
Standings · Estonia Esiliiga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu JK Welco | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 54 | 23 | 42 |
| 2 | Viimsi JK | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 16 | 32 |
| 3 | FC Flora Tallinn II | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 44 | 34 | 30 |
| 4 | FC Elva | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 32 | 27 |
| 5 | FC Levadia Tallinn U21 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 11 | 37 | 35 | 24 |
| 6 | Maardu Linnameeskond | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 38 | 23 |
| 7 | JK Tallinna Kalev | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 37 | 39 | 22 |
| 8 | JK Nomme Kalju II | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 44 | 19 |
| 9 | JK Nomme United II | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 41 | 19 |
| 10 | FC Tallinn | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 49 | 17 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Maardu Linnameeskond | Tartu JK Welco |
|---|---|---|
| FC Flora Tallinn II | 3-2 W | 3-3 D |
| JK Tallinna Kalev | 3-3 D | 0-2 L |
| Viimsi JK | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| JK Nomme Kalju II | 2-1 W | 4-2 W |
| FC Elva | 3-4 L | 2-0 W |
| FC Tallinn | 0-0 D | 4-0 W |
| FC Levadia Tallinn U21 | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| JK Nomme United II | 2-1 W | 5-2 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 1 L | 5 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Tartu JK Welco (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maardu Linnameeskond
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 03/07 | JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga |
1-3 | 3-3 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 22/06 | Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 18/06 | JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 15 | 1 | W |
| 11/06 | FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga |
3-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 28/05 | FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 7 | D |
| 24/05 | Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 01/05 | FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 3 | L |
Tartu JK Welco
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 21/06 | JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga |
3-1 | 5-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 18/06 | FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 01/06 | FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 28/05 | JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga |
2-2 | 4-2 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga |
2-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 09/05 | JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maardu Linnameeskond vs Tartu JK Welco?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Tartu JK Welco win (65%). Probabilities: Maardu Linnameeskond 17%, draw 18%, Tartu JK Welco 65%.
How many goals are expected in Maardu Linnameeskond vs Tartu JK Welco?
The model expects 3.83 goals (Maardu Linnameeskond 1.27 · Tartu JK Welco 2.56), with a 55% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Maardu Linnameeskond vs Tartu JK Welco?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.