Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 16/07, 18:00
Prediction: Viimsi JK vs FC Elva
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.92Total
Viimsi JK1.87
FC Elva1.05
1X2
Viimsi JK
Draw
FC Elva
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Viimsi JK
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
FC Elva
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Viimsi JK
2–2–2
FC Elva
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Viimsi JK 1565 · FC Elva 1524
| Viimsi JK | Draw | FC Elva | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 57% | 22% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Viimsi JK (rating 1565 vs 1524).
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Viimsi JK | FC Elva | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 0.8 | 2.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 6.1 | 1.9 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.4 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Viimsi JK 2–2–2 FC Elva
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga | FC Elva | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Viimsi JK |
| 22/09/25 Estonia Esiliiga | Viimsi JK | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FC Elva |
| 19/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga | FC Elva | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Viimsi JK |
| 19/06/25 Estonia Esiliiga | FC Elva | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Viimsi JK |
| 01/03/25 Estonia Esiliiga | Viimsi JK | 3-3 HT 0-3 | FC Elva |
| 10/11/24 Estonia Esiliiga | FC Elva | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Viimsi JK |
Standings · Estonia Esiliiga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu JK Welco | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 62 | 24 | 45 |
| 2 | Viimsi JK | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 16 | 32 |
| 3 | FC Flora Tallinn II | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 45 | 35 | 31 |
| 4 | FC Elva | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 32 | 27 |
| 5 | FC Levadia Tallinn U21 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 11 | 37 | 35 | 24 |
| 6 | Maardu Linnameeskond | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 46 | 23 |
| 7 | JK Tallinna Kalev | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 37 | 39 | 22 |
| 8 | JK Nomme United II | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 35 | 42 | 20 |
| 9 | JK Nomme Kalju II | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 44 | 19 |
| 10 | FC Tallinn | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 49 | 17 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Viimsi JK | FC Elva |
|---|---|---|
| JK Nomme Kalju II | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Tartu JK Welco | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Maardu Linnameeskond | 0-1 L | 4-3 W |
| JK Tallinna Kalev | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| FC Tallinn | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| FC Flora Tallinn II | 4-0 W | 0-3 L |
| FC Levadia Tallinn U21 | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Viimsi JK
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga |
2-2 | 2-2 | 23 | 1 | D |
| 02/07 | Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 22/06 | Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 27/05 | JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 17/05 | JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 09/05 | FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 01/05 | FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 23/04 | Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
FC Elva
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 05/07 | JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 30/06 | FC Jarva-Jaani Estonia Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 22/06 | FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 11/06 | Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga |
1-3 | 4-3 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 01/06 | Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/05 | FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 07/05 | FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Viimsi JK vs FC Elva?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Viimsi JK win (56%). Probabilities: Viimsi JK 56%, draw 23%, FC Elva 21%.
How many goals are expected in Viimsi JK vs FC Elva?
The model expects 2.92 goals (Viimsi JK 1.87 · FC Elva 1.05), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Viimsi JK vs FC Elva?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.