Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 18/07, 18:00
Prediction: Tartu JK Welco vs FC Tallinn
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.12Total
Tartu JK Welco3.06
FC Tallinn1.06
1X2
Tartu JK Welco
Draw
FC Tallinn
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
Tartu JK Welco
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
FC Tallinn
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tartu JK Welco
5–1–0
FC Tallinn
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tartu JK Welco 1602 · FC Tallinn 1420
| Tartu JK Welco | Draw | FC Tallinn | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 86% | 8% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.12 goals · Bet365 line 4.75 · -0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tartu JK Welco (rating 1602 vs 1420).
- H2H favours Tartu JK Welco: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tartu JK Welco | FC Tallinn | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.2 / 1.3 | 0.9 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.2 | 1.9 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0 | 5.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tartu JK Welco 5–1–0 FC Tallinn
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga | Tartu JK Welco | 4-0 HT 1-0 | FC Tallinn |
| 01/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga | FC Tallinn | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Tartu JK Welco |
| 21/09/25 Estonia Esiliiga | Tartu JK Welco | 2-2 HT 2-1 | FC Tallinn |
| 23/08/25 Estonia Esiliiga | FC Tallinn | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Tartu JK Welco |
| 05/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga | FC Tallinn | 1-5 HT 1-2 | Tartu JK Welco |
| 29/03/25 Estonia Esiliiga | Tartu JK Welco | 3-1 HT 1-0 | FC Tallinn |
Standings · Estonia Esiliiga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu JK Welco | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 62 | 24 | 45 |
| 2 | Viimsi JK | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 16 | 32 |
| 3 | FC Flora Tallinn II | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 45 | 35 | 31 |
| 4 | FC Elva | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 32 | 27 |
| 5 | FC Levadia Tallinn U21 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 11 | 37 | 35 | 24 |
| 6 | Maardu Linnameeskond | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 46 | 23 |
| 7 | JK Tallinna Kalev | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 37 | 39 | 22 |
| 8 | JK Nomme United II | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 35 | 42 | 20 |
| 9 | JK Nomme Kalju II | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 44 | 19 |
| 10 | FC Tallinn | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 49 | 17 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tartu JK Welco | FC Tallinn |
|---|---|---|
| Maardu Linnameeskond | 8-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Viimsi JK | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| JK Nomme United II | 5-2 W | 4-3 W |
| FC Levadia Tallinn U21 | 3-1 W | 0-4 L |
| FC Elva | 2-0 W | 0-3 L |
| JK Nomme Kalju II | 4-2 W | 3-1 W |
| FC Flora Tallinn II | 3-3 D | 1-3 L |
| JK Tallinna Kalev | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Tartu JK Welco (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tartu JK Welco
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga |
4-1 | 8-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/07 | Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 21/06 | JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga |
3-1 | 5-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 18/06 | FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 01/06 | FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 28/05 | JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga |
2-2 | 4-2 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga |
2-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 09/05 | JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
FC Tallinn
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 04/07 | JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga |
3-2 | 4-3 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 21/06 | FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga |
0-3 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/06 | FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 01/06 | JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 28/05 | Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 24/05 | Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 14/05 | JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 07/05 | FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tartu JK Welco vs FC Tallinn?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tartu JK Welco win (82%). Probabilities: Tartu JK Welco 82%, draw 11%, FC Tallinn 8%.
How many goals are expected in Tartu JK Welco vs FC Tallinn?
The model expects 4.12 goals (Tartu JK Welco 3.06 · FC Tallinn 1.06), with a 57% chance of under 4.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Tartu JK Welco vs FC Tallinn?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.