Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: JK Tammeka Tartu vs JK Nomme United

Team pages: JK Tammeka Tartu · JK Nomme United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.77Total

JK Tammeka Tartu2.09

JK Nomme United1.68

1X2

46% 23% 30%

JK Tammeka Tartu Draw JK Nomme United

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Tammeka Tartu 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWLWLL

JK Nomme United 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLWLL

Head-to-head

JK Tammeka Tartu 5–1–0 JK Nomme United (6 last)

JK Nomme United0-1JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu3-1JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United2-3JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Nomme United0-6JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Nomme United1-2JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu1-1JK Nomme United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Tammeka Tartu 1550 · JK Nomme United 1425

	JK Tammeka Tartu	Draw	JK Nomme United
Our model	47%	23%	31%
Market	46%	24%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Tammeka Tartu (rating 1550 vs 1425).
H2H favours JK Tammeka Tartu: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Tammeka Tartu	JK Nomme United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.6	1.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.75

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
02:23 +11’	1.95	3.75	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Tammeka Tartu 5–1–0 JK Nomme United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	0-1 HT 0-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
15/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	3-1 HT 1-1	JK Nomme United
21/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	2-3 HT 2-2	JK Tammeka Tartu
31/01/26 Europe Friendlies	JK Nomme United	0-6 HT 0-5	JK Tammeka Tartu
09/11/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	1-2 HT 1-1	JK Tammeka Tartu
11/08/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	1-1 HT 0-1	JK Nomme United

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	29	22	6	1	81	21	72
2	FC Flora Tallinn	29	18	1	10	59	39	55
3	Paide Linnameeskond	29	15	6	8	48	36	51
4	JK Nomme Kalju	29	15	5	9	52	27	50
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	29	14	2	13	37	47	44
6	Harju JK Laagri	29	11	2	16	40	47	35
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	29	10	4	15	39	57	34
8	FC Kuressaare	29	8	5	16	31	49	29
9	JK Nomme United	29	9	1	19	47	68	28
10	JK Trans Narva	29	5	4	20	22	65	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Tammeka Tartu	JK Nomme United
JK Nomme Kalju	1-3 L	2-1 W
FC Levadia Tallinn	0-6 L	0-5 L
Paide Linnameeskond	0-2 L	1-3 L
Harju JK Laagri	2-0 W	1-2 L
FC Flora Tallinn	2-3 L	2-3 L
JK Trans Narva	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Tammeka Tartu

WWWWLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
17/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-6	3	4	L
13/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-1	5	1	W
09/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
06/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
02/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	2-3	4	6	L
30/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
26/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	2	9	W
22/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
14/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W

JK Nomme United

WLLLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-3	3	2	L
12/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-3	3	1	L
08/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	5	7	W
05/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
29/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
23/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
14/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
09/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-5	1	1	L
31/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
17/07	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Tammeka Tartu vs JK Nomme United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Tammeka Tartu win (46%). Probabilities: JK Tammeka Tartu 46%, draw 23%, JK Nomme United 30%.

How many goals are expected in JK Tammeka Tartu vs JK Nomme United?

The model expects 3.77 goals (JK Tammeka Tartu 2.09 · JK Nomme United 1.68), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Tammeka Tartu vs JK Nomme United?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.