Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 26/07, 22:45
Prediction: Orense vs Independiente del Valle
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.62Total
Orense0.85
Independiente del Valle1.77
1X2
Orense
Draw
Independiente del Valle
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Orense
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Independiente del Valle
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Orense
0–2–4
Independiente del Valle
(6 last)
- Independiente del Valle2-0Orense
- Independiente del Valle0-0Orense
- Orense1-2Independiente del Valle
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Orense 1438 · Independiente del Valle 1648
| Orense | Draw | Independiente del Valle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 25% | 58% |
| Market | 17% | 25% | 58% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1438 vs 1648).
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Orense | Independiente del Valle | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.4 | 3.3 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 1.4 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 80/20/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.6 | 3.9 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.3 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Orense 0–2–4 Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Orense |
| 24/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Orense |
| 18/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Orense | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Independiente del Valle |
| 17/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Orense |
| 27/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Orense | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Independiente del Valle |
| 01/12/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Orense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente del Valle |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 21 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 52 | 20 | 52 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 19 | 35 |
| 3 | SD Aucas | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 21 | 35 |
| 4 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 16 | 34 |
| 5 | Macara | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 21 | 32 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 17 | 29 |
| 7 | Leones FC | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 28 |
| 8 | Emelec | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 24 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cuenca | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 28 |
| 10 | Guayaquil City | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 23 | 27 |
| 11 | Orense | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 29 | 26 |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 27 | 31 | 25 |
| 13 | Club Atletico Libertad | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 24 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 19 | 24 | 23 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 20 | 23 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 8 | 26 | 14 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Orense | Independiente del Valle |
|---|---|---|
| SD Aucas | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Mushuc Runa | 1-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Emelec | 0-2 L | 6-1 W |
| Manta FC | 0-0 D | 4-0 W |
| Tecnico Universitario | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Guayaquil City | 1-0 W | 4-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 6 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Orense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 20/07 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 17/07 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 11/07 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 07/07 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 02/07 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 27/05 | Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 19/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 20/07 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-0 | 6-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 16/07 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 09/07 | CD Vargas Torres Ecuador Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 04/07 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Rosario Central Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-3 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 20/05 | Libertad Asuncion Copa Libertadores |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Orense vs Independiente del Valle?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente del Valle win (58%). Probabilities: Orense 17%, draw 25%, Independiente del Valle 58%.
How many goals are expected in Orense vs Independiente del Valle?
The model expects 2.62 goals (Orense 0.85 · Independiente del Valle 1.77), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Orense vs Independiente del Valle?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.