Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 26/07, 20:15

Prediction: Delfin SC vs Leones FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.12Total

Delfin SC1.2

Leones FC0.91

1X2

41% 32% 27%

Delfin SC Draw Leones FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Delfin SC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLLDLWWL

Leones FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWWDWD

Head-to-head

Delfin SC 0–1 Leones FC (1 last)

Leones FC1-0Delfin SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Delfin SC 1479 · Leones FC 1547

	Delfin SC	Draw	Leones FC
Our model	41%	32%	27%
Market	41%	32%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.12 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leones FC (rating 1479 vs 1547).
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Delfin SC	Leones FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.7	1.9 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X2.90

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 22.00

Under 21.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:28

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.32▲	Pinn 2.32
X	2.86 → 2.89▲	Pinn 2.89
2	3.43 → 3.46▲	Pinn 3.46

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23	2.30	2.86	3.43
01:28 +1’	2.32▲	2.89▲	3.46▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Delfin SC 0–0–1 Leones FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Leones FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Delfin SC

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	21	17	1	3	52	20	52
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	21	10	5	6	33	19	35
3	SD Aucas	21	10	5	6	23	21	35
4	Barcelona Guayaquil	21	9	7	5	23	16	34
5	Macara	21	9	5	7	24	21	32
6	LDU Quito	21	8	5	8	20	17	29
7	Leones FC	21	7	7	7	22	21	28
8	Emelec	21	7	7	7	18	24	28
9	Deportivo Cuenca	21	8	4	9	19	26	28
10	Guayaquil City	21	7	6	8	19	23	27
11	Orense	21	7	5	9	25	29	26
12	Mushuc Runa	21	6	7	8	27	31	25
13	Club Atletico Libertad	21	6	6	9	19	26	24
14	Tecnico Universitario	21	7	2	12	19	24	23
15	Delfin SC	21	6	5	10	13	20	23
16	Manta FC	21	3	5	13	8	26	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Delfin SC	Leones FC
Club Atletico Libertad	0-1 L	3-1 W
Macara	2-1 W	1-1 D
Guayaquil City	1-2 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Cuenca	0-1 L	1-1 D
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	2-2 D	1-0 W
Tecnico Universitario	0-4 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Leones FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Delfin SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
18/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
15/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
12/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
06/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
31/05	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
25/05	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
16/05	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
13/05	Banos Ciudad de Fuego Ecuador Cup	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
09/05	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-4	3	4	L

Leones FC

LWLWDWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
18/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	11	W
04/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	3-1	7	6	W
02/06	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
30/05	Huaquillas FC Ecuador Cup	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
24/05	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
17/05	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	3-1	4	4	W
09/05	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-2	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Delfin SC vs Leones FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Delfin SC win (41%). Probabilities: Delfin SC 41%, draw 32%, Leones FC 27%.

How many goals are expected in Delfin SC vs Leones FC?

The model expects 2.12 goals (Delfin SC 1.2 · Leones FC 0.91), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Delfin SC vs Leones FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.