Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 26/07, 20:15
Prediction: SD Aucas vs Macara
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.1Total
SD Aucas1.25
Macara0.84
1X2
SD Aucas
Draw
Macara
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 65%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
SD Aucas
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Macara
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
SD Aucas
2–1–3
Macara
(6 last)
- Macara0-1SD Aucas
- SD Aucas0-2Macara
- Macara3-2SD Aucas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SD Aucas 1526 · Macara 1568
| SD Aucas | Draw | Macara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 32% | 24% |
| Market | 46% | 30% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Macara (rating 1526 vs 1568).
- H2H favours Macara: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SD Aucas | Macara | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.5 | 2.6 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.4 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SD Aucas 2–1–3 Macara
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 0-1 HT 0-0 | SD Aucas |
| 20/12/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Macara |
| 05/10/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 3-2 HT 0-2 | SD Aucas |
| 06/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Macara |
| 09/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 1-1 HT 0-1 | SD Aucas |
| 20/10/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | SD Aucas | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Macara |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 21 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 52 | 20 | 52 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 19 | 35 |
| 3 | SD Aucas | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 21 | 35 |
| 4 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 16 | 34 |
| 5 | Macara | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 21 | 32 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 17 | 29 |
| 7 | Leones FC | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 28 |
| 8 | Emelec | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 24 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cuenca | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 28 |
| 10 | Guayaquil City | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 23 | 27 |
| 11 | Orense | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 29 | 26 |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 27 | 31 | 25 |
| 13 | Club Atletico Libertad | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 24 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 19 | 24 | 23 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 20 | 23 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 8 | 26 | 14 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | SD Aucas | Macara |
|---|---|---|
| Tecnico Universitario | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Deportivo Cuenca | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Mushuc Runa | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Macara (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SD Aucas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 19/07 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 16/07 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 08/07 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 26/05 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
Macara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 18/07 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 14/07 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 11/07 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 05/07 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 05/06 | CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 02/06 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 29/05 | America de Cali Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Alianza Atletico Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in SD Aucas vs Macara?
According to our model, the most likely result is a SD Aucas win (45%). Probabilities: SD Aucas 45%, draw 31%, Macara 24%.
How many goals are expected in SD Aucas vs Macara?
The model expects 2.1 goals (SD Aucas 1.25 · Macara 0.84), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in SD Aucas vs Macara?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.