Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 12/09, 23:30

Prediction: Guayaquil City vs Mushuc Runa

Team pages: Guayaquil City · Mushuc Runa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Guayaquil City1.1

Mushuc Runa1.1

1X2

35% 31% 35%

Guayaquil City Draw Mushuc Runa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Guayaquil City 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLDDWWLL

Mushuc Runa 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWWDDWDD

Head-to-head

Guayaquil City 3–1–2 Mushuc Runa (6 last)

Mushuc Runa2-2Guayaquil City
Guayaquil City3-1Mushuc Runa
Mushuc Runa3-0Guayaquil City
Guayaquil City4-1Mushuc Runa
Guayaquil City4-1Mushuc Runa
Mushuc Runa2-0Guayaquil City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guayaquil City 1496 · Mushuc Runa 1529

	Guayaquil City	Draw	Mushuc Runa
Our model	34%	32%	34%
Market	35%	30%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Guayaquil City: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guayaquil City	Mushuc Runa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/78/11%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.4	2.9 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.10

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.73 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.72

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:53 +9’	2.63	3.10	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:11 +39’	3.06	3.03	2.39
03:13 +31’	3.09▲	3.06▲	2.41▲
04:45 +61’	2.80▼	3.06	2.63▲
14:14 +20’	2.81▲	3.03▼	2.64▲
16:51 +78’	2.73▼	3.03	2.72▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guayaquil City 3–1–2 Mushuc Runa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	2-2 HT 2-1	Guayaquil City
06/08/25 Ecuador Cup	Guayaquil City	3-1 HT 1-0	Mushuc Runa
16/08/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	3-0 HT 3-0	Guayaquil City
18/03/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	4-1 HT 2-1	Mushuc Runa
20/09/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	4-1 HT 1-0	Mushuc Runa
30/04/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Mushuc Runa	2-0 HT 0-0	Guayaquil City

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	29	23	2	4	70	31	71
2	SD Aucas	29	14	7	8	33	28	49
3	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	29	13	9	7	49	26	48
4	Macara	29	14	6	9	40	33	48
5	LDU Quito	29	13	6	10	30	23	45
6	Barcelona Guayaquil	29	11	10	8	31	24	43
7	Club Atletico Libertad	29	11	8	10	31	31	41
8	Leones FC	29	10	9	10	31	31	39
9	Emelec	29	10	9	10	25	33	39
10	Mushuc Runa	29	9	11	9	34	35	38
11	Guayaquil City	29	9	9	11	30	35	36
12	Deportivo Cuenca	29	10	5	14	24	36	35
13	Orense	29	9	6	14	35	45	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	29	9	2	18	27	42	29
15	Delfin SC	29	7	6	16	18	30	27
16	Manta FC	29	5	5	19	17	42	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guayaquil City	Mushuc Runa
Orense	3-4 L	2-1 W
Deportivo Cuenca	0-1 L	0-0 D
LDU Quito	2-1 W	0-0 D
Tecnico Universitario	3-2 W	3-0 W
Club Atletico Libertad	2-2 D	0-2 L
Emelec	0-0 D	1-1 D
Leones FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Manta FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mushuc Runa (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guayaquil City

WDDLDDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-2	3-4	1	4	L
02/09	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
29/08	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	–	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	2-2	1	3	D
10/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
02/08	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	0	9	L
27/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
23/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
19/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	4	W

Mushuc Runa

WDLWWDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
02/09	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
28/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
22/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
16/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
10/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	3-0	5	7	W
01/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	2-1	6	4	W
27/07	Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-2	13	2	L
24/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
20/07	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guayaquil City vs Mushuc Runa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guayaquil City win (35%). Probabilities: Guayaquil City 35%, draw 31%, Mushuc Runa 35%.

How many goals are expected in Guayaquil City vs Mushuc Runa?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Guayaquil City 1.1 · Mushuc Runa 1.1), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Guayaquil City vs Mushuc Runa?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.