Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 14/09, 01:00
Prediction: Club Atletico Libertad vs Independiente del Valle
Team pages: Club Atletico Libertad · Independiente del Valle
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Club Atletico Libertad1.18
Independiente del Valle1.7
1X2
Club Atletico Libertad
Draw
Independiente del Valle
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Club Atletico Libertad
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Independiente del Valle
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Club Atletico Libertad
2–3–1
Independiente del Valle
(6 last)
- Independiente del Valle2-3Club Atletico Libertad
- Independiente del Valle1-1Club Atletico Libertad
- Club Atletico Libertad1-3Independiente del Valle
- Independiente del Valle1-1Club Atletico Libertad
- Club Atletico Libertad2-0Independiente del Valle
- Club Atletico Libertad1-1Independiente del Valle
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Club Atletico Libertad 1552 · Independiente del Valle 1580
| Club Atletico Libertad | Draw | Independiente del Valle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 26% | 48% |
| Market | 25% | 27% | 48% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Club Atletico Libertad: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Club Atletico Libertad | Independiente del Valle | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.6 | 2.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.1 | 1.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.7 | 3.1 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico Libertad 2–3–1 Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 2-3 HT 0-0 | Club Atletico Libertad |
| 06/12/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Club Atletico Libertad |
| 04/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Club Atletico Libertad | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Independiente del Valle |
| 14/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Club Atletico Libertad |
| 15/02/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Club Atletico Libertad | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Independiente del Valle |
| 21/09/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Club Atletico Libertad | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Independiente del Valle |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 29 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 70 | 31 | 71 |
| 2 | SD Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 28 | 50 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 49 | 26 | 48 |
| 4 | Macara | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 33 | 48 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31 | 24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 31 | 24 | 43 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Libertad | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones FC | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33 | 36 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 25 | 33 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35 | 38 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 37 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 35 | 45 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 29 | 9 | 2 | 18 | 27 | 42 | 29 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 30 | 27 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17 | 42 | 21 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Club Atletico Libertad | Independiente del Valle |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Cuenca | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Emelec | 1-1 D | 6-1 W |
| Macara | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Orense | 3-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Delfin SC | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Club Atletico Libertad
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 04/09 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 25/08 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 10/08 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 01/08 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 27/07 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 21/07 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 19/07 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
Independiente del Valle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 03/09 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/07 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 20/07 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-0 | 6-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Club Atletico Libertad vs Independiente del Valle?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente del Valle win (48%). Probabilities: Club Atletico Libertad 25%, draw 27%, Independiente del Valle 48%.
How many goals are expected in Club Atletico Libertad vs Independiente del Valle?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Club Atletico Libertad 1.18 · Independiente del Valle 1.7), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Club Atletico Libertad vs Independiente del Valle?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.