Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 13/09, 22:30
Prediction: Macara vs Emelec
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Macara1.44
Emelec1.2
1X2
Macara
Draw
Emelec
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Macara
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Emelec
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Macara
2–3–1
Emelec
(6 last)
- Emelec2-0Macara
- Emelec0-2Macara
- Macara3-0Emelec
- Macara1-1Emelec
- Emelec0-0Macara
- Macara1-1Emelec
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Macara 1546 · Emelec 1479
| Macara | Draw | Emelec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 40% | 31% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Macara (rating 1546 vs 1479).
- H2H favours Macara: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Macara | Emelec | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.4 | 1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4 | 1.8 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.4 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Macara 2–3–1 Emelec
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Macara |
| 09/12/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Macara |
| 02/11/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Emelec |
| 30/06/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Emelec |
| 01/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Macara |
| 09/11/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Macara | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Emelec |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 29 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 70 | 31 | 71 |
| 2 | SD Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 28 | 50 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 49 | 26 | 48 |
| 4 | Macara | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 33 | 48 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31 | 24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 31 | 24 | 43 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Libertad | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones FC | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33 | 36 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 25 | 33 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35 | 38 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 37 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 35 | 45 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 29 | 9 | 2 | 18 | 27 | 42 | 29 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 18 | 30 | 27 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17 | 42 | 21 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Macara | Emelec |
|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 1-3 L | 1-6 L |
| Orense | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Club Atletico Libertad | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Guayaquil City | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| SD Aucas | 4-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Deportivo Cuenca | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Macara (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Macara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/09 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/08 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 26/07 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 22/07 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 18/07 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
Emelec
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 31/08 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 24/08 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 10/08 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 02/08 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 28/07 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 24/07 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 20/07 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-3 | 1-6 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 17/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Macara vs Emelec?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Macara win (41%). Probabilities: Macara 41%, draw 30%, Emelec 29%.
How many goals are expected in Macara vs Emelec?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Macara 1.44 · Emelec 1.2), with a 59% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Macara vs Emelec?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.