Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 13/09, 22:00

Prediction: LDU Quito vs Deportivo Cuenca

Team pages: LDU Quito · Deportivo Cuenca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

LDU Quito1.55

Deportivo Cuenca0.64

1X2

59% 26% 15%

LDU Quito Draw Deportivo Cuenca

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

LDU Quito 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWWLDW

Deportivo Cuenca 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLDLW

Head-to-head

LDU Quito 4–2–0 Deportivo Cuenca (6 last)

Deportivo Cuenca1-1LDU Quito
LDU Quito2-0Deportivo Cuenca
LDU Quito2-2Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca1-2LDU Quito
LDU Quito5-0Deportivo Cuenca
LDU Quito3-0Deportivo Cuenca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LDU Quito 1554 · Deportivo Cuenca 1427

	LDU Quito	Draw	Deportivo Cuenca
Our model	58%	28%	14%
Market	60%	24%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LDU Quito (rating 1554 vs 1427).
H2H favours LDU Quito: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LDU Quito	Deportivo Cuenca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.9	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.80

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.13
2	5.75 → 5.75	Pinn 6.51 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:24 +1’	1.53	3.80	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:16 +10’	1.47	4.13	6.51

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LDU Quito 4–2–0 Deportivo Cuenca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Deportivo Cuenca	1-1 HT 0-0	LDU Quito
13/11/25 Ecuador Cup	LDU Quito	2-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Cuenca
21/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	2-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo Cuenca
29/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Deportivo Cuenca	1-2 HT 1-1	LDU Quito
01/12/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	LDU Quito	5-0 HT 4-0	Deportivo Cuenca
29/08/24 Ecuador Cup	LDU Quito	3-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Cuenca

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	29	23	2	4	70	31	71
2	Macara	29	14	6	9	40	33	48
3	SD Aucas	28	14	6	8	32	27	48
4	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	28	12	9	7	48	26	45
5	LDU Quito	29	13	6	10	30	23	45
6	Barcelona Guayaquil	28	11	9	8	30	23	42
7	Leones FC	28	10	8	10	30	30	38
8	Club Atletico Libertad	28	10	8	10	30	31	38
9	Mushuc Runa	28	9	10	9	33	34	37
10	Guayaquil City	28	9	9	10	27	31	36
11	Emelec	28	9	9	10	24	33	36
12	Deportivo Cuenca	28	10	5	13	24	35	35
13	Orense	28	8	6	14	31	42	30
14	Tecnico Universitario	29	9	2	18	27	42	29
15	Delfin SC	28	7	6	15	18	29	27
16	Manta FC	28	5	5	18	17	41	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LDU Quito	Deportivo Cuenca
Tecnico Universitario	3-1 W	1-3 L
Mushuc Runa	0-0 D	0-0 D
Guayaquil City	1-2 L	1-0 W
Emelec	2-0 W	2-1 W
Independiente del Valle	0-2 L	0-1 L
Manta FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Leones FC	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LDU Quito

LDWWLWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	3-1	6	2	W
02/09	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
29/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
24/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	3	10	W
08/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	7	1	L
04/08	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	2-1	8	2	W
27/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
23/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
18/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	9	5	L

Deportivo Cuenca

DLLWLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
29/08	Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
22/08	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
16/08	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
11/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	8	2	L
02/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
28/07	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	12	7	W
22/07	Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
18/07	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
16/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LDU Quito vs Deportivo Cuenca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LDU Quito win (59%). Probabilities: LDU Quito 59%, draw 26%, Deportivo Cuenca 15%.

How many goals are expected in LDU Quito vs Deportivo Cuenca?

The model expects 2.19 goals (LDU Quito 1.55 · Deportivo Cuenca 0.64), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in LDU Quito vs Deportivo Cuenca?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.