Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 13/09, 20:00

Prediction: Leones FC vs Tecnico Universitario

Team pages: Leones FC · Tecnico Universitario

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Leones FC1.74

Tecnico Universitario1

1X2

53% 27% 20%

Leones FC Draw Tecnico Universitario

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Leones FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWDLWLLW

Tecnico Universitario 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Leones FC 0–1 Tecnico Universitario (1 last)

Tecnico Universitario2-1Leones FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leones FC 1497 · Tecnico Universitario 1424

	Leones FC	Draw	Tecnico Universitario
Our model	54%	26%	20%
Market	53%	28%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leones FC (rating 1497 vs 1424).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leones FC	Tecnico Universitario
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	0.8 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	22/22/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 5	3.2 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.30

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.75

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 2.05▲	Bet365 2.05
X	3.30 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.15
2	4.75 → 3.75▼	Pinn 4.11 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:13 +1’	1.75	3.30	4.75
18:27 +11’	1.83▲	3.25▼	4.50▼
12:17 +4’	2.05▲	3.10▼	3.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:13 +37’	1.79	3.35	4.47
03:14 +30’	1.81▲	3.39▲	4.54▲
14:19 +88’	1.91▲	3.26▼	4.20▼
17:26 +72’	1.89▼	3.28▲	4.25▲
20:00 +96’	1.88▼	3.30▲	4.31▲
15:42 +4’	1.89▲	3.21▼	4.34▲
22:12 +37’	1.90▲	3.27▲	4.44▲
06:41 +6’	1.86▼	3.32▲	4.56▲
08:01 +21’	1.87▲	3.34▲	4.59▲
12:03 +18’	2.04▲	3.15▼	4.11▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leones FC 0–0–1 Tecnico Universitario

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Tecnico Universitario	2-1 HT 1-0	Leones FC

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	29	23	2	4	70	31	71
2	SD Aucas	30	14	8	8	33	28	50
3	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	29	13	9	7	49	26	48
4	Macara	29	14	6	9	40	33	48
5	LDU Quito	30	13	7	10	31	24	46
6	Barcelona Guayaquil	29	11	10	8	31	24	43
7	Club Atletico Libertad	29	11	8	10	31	31	41
8	Leones FC	29	10	9	10	31	31	39
9	Guayaquil City	30	10	9	11	33	36	39
10	Emelec	29	10	9	10	25	33	39
11	Mushuc Runa	30	9	11	10	35	38	38
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	25	37	36
13	Orense	29	9	6	14	35	45	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	29	9	2	18	27	42	29
15	Delfin SC	29	7	6	16	18	30	27
16	Manta FC	30	5	6	19	17	42	21

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leones FC	Tecnico Universitario
Emelec	1-2 L	1-2 L
Independiente del Valle	2-3 L	0-3 L
Manta FC	2-0 W	1-0 W
SD Aucas	0-3 L	0-1 L
Delfin SC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Guayaquil City	1-1 D	2-3 L
LDU Quito	1-0 W	1-3 L
Deportivo Cuenca	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Leones FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leones FC

DWDWDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
31/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
22/08	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-3	4	5	L
15/08	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/08	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
03/08	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
26/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
23/07	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
18/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	4	D

Tecnico Universitario

LLWLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-3	4	2	L
01/09	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	2	10	L
29/08	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	2-1	3-1	4	4	W
22/08	Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	–	2-3	–	–	L
16/08	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	1-2	8	2	L
10/08	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	0-3	3	7	L
01/08	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-3	0-5	7	5	L
26/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
22/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
19/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	10	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leones FC vs Tecnico Universitario?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leones FC win (53%). Probabilities: Leones FC 53%, draw 27%, Tecnico Universitario 20%.

How many goals are expected in Leones FC vs Tecnico Universitario?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Leones FC 1.74 · Tecnico Universitario 1), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Leones FC vs Tecnico Universitario?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.