Football · Brazil Serie A · 18/10, 21:00

Prediction: Fluminense vs Santos

Team pages: Fluminense · Santos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Fluminense1.63

Santos1.43

1X2

41% 27% 32%

Fluminense Draw Santos

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Fluminense 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWDWLWWL

Santos 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWWWDL

Head-to-head

Fluminense 4–2–0 Santos (6 last)

Santos2-3Fluminense
Santos0-0Fluminense
Fluminense1-0Santos
Santos0-3Fluminense
Fluminense1-0Santos
Santos2-2Fluminense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fluminense 1528 · Santos 1550

	Fluminense	Draw	Santos
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	41%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Fluminense: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fluminense	Santos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.8	2.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	5.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 15 moves · last 14:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.35▲	Pinn 2.39
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	3.30 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.09 ★

See the full journey (15)

Bet365 margin 4.5% Pinnacle margin 3.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:31	2.05	3.40	3.30
05:16 +2’	1.95▼	3.60▲	3.60▲
11:16 +9’	2.05▲	3.60	3.40▼
03:19 +8’	2.10▲	3.50▼	3.50▲
06:11 +10’	2.15▲	3.50	3.40▼
09:20 +4’	2.15	3.50	3.30▼
21:39 +2’	2.25▲	3.50	3.20▼
17:58 +3’	2.30▲	3.40▼	3.10▼
20:24 +4’	2.40▲	3.40	2.90▼
21:29 +12’	2.38▼	3.40	3.00▲
23:11 +2’	2.45▲	3.40	2.88▼
01:11 +8’	2.38▼	3.40	3.00▲
06:14 +2’	2.38	3.50▲	3.00
10:10 +4’	2.38	3.50	2.90▼
13:58 +3’	2.35▼	3.50	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +235’	2.00	3.64	3.65
07:06 +12’	2.01▲	3.62▼	3.61▼
12:25 +2’	2.07▲	3.58▼	3.49▼
11:22 +3’	2.08▲	3.56▼	3.47▼
16:30 +3’	2.10▲	3.55▼	3.45▼
00:54 +30’	2.13▲	3.44▼	3.48▲
09:19 +5’	2.11▼	3.48▲	3.46▼
10:05 +25’	2.16▲	3.47▼	3.36▼
21:40 +1’	2.26▲	3.38▼	3.22▼
23:56 +32’	2.27▲	3.39▲	3.20▼
03:15 +16’	2.30▲	3.42▲	3.12▼
04:26 +9’	2.29▼	3.45▲	3.11▼
20:00 +27’	2.41▲	3.42▼	2.93▼
21:12 +29’	2.43▲	3.46▲	2.96▲
22:02 +27’	2.43	3.47▲	2.96
01:10 +9’	2.42▼	3.50▲	2.96
03:08 +8’	2.42	3.47▼	2.97▲
05:19 +57’	2.41▼	3.47	2.98▲
07:03 +9’	2.41	3.49▲	2.98
09:00 +13’	2.42▲	3.51▲	2.98
10:09 +4’	2.44▲	3.41▼	3.03▲
12:14 +14’	2.48▲	3.41	2.97▼
13:51 +10’	2.39▼	3.43▲	3.09▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fluminense 4–2–0 Santos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Santos	2-3 HT 1-1	Fluminense
31/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Santos	0-0 HT 0-0	Fluminense
14/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	1-0 HT 0-0	Santos
29/11/23 Brazil Serie A	Santos	0-3 HT 0-2	Fluminense
29/07/23 Brazil Serie A	Fluminense	1-0 HT 0-0	Santos
02/08/22 Brazil Serie A	Santos	2-2 HT 1-0	Fluminense

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54	22	66
2	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	58	25	64
3	Athletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49	37	53
4	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	48	37	51
5	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
6	EC Bahia	30	13	10	7	44	36	49
7	Cruzeiro	30	14	6	10	46	44	48
8	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36	35	42
9	Santos	30	11	9	10	46	45	42
10	Bragantino	30	11	7	12	38	35	40
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	44	48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33	44	36
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36	44	36
15	Vasco da Gama	30	9	8	13	36	43	35
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	31	38	32
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	33	40	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	32	40	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	33	48	25
20	Chapecoense	30	3	9	18	30	62	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fluminense	Santos
Flamengo	0-1 L	2-2 D
Corinthians	3-1 W	1-0 W
Atletico Mineiro	1-3 L	1-2 L
Vasco da Gama	1-0 W	3-0 W
Athletico Paranaense	3-3 D	0-2 L
Remo	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Santos (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fluminense

DDWWDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
09/10	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	4-0	3	1	W
20/09	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	1	8	W
12/09	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-3	2	3	L
06/09	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
30/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-3	3	4	D
22/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
15/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	5	7	W
09/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
30/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	8	2	D

Santos

LWDWWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	3	7	L
09/10	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-2	5	11	D
03/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
19/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
13/09	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	13	5	W
06/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	3-0	3-2	2	9	W
30/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
23/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
16/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-0	2	2	W
09/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	10	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fluminense vs Santos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fluminense win (41%). Probabilities: Fluminense 41%, draw 27%, Santos 32%.

How many goals are expected in Fluminense vs Santos?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Fluminense 1.63 · Santos 1.43), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Santos?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.