Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 27/07, 23:30

Prediction: Guayaquil City vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Guayaquil City1.34

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1.39

1X2

35% 28% 37%

Guayaquil City Draw Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Guayaquil City 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Guayaquil City 1–3–2 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (6 last)

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador4-1Guayaquil City
Guayaquil City0-0Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador3-0Guayaquil City

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (rating 1460 vs 1522).
H2H favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guayaquil City	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.2	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.78

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:24

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.27 → 3.89▲	Pinn 3.89
X	3.15 → 3.38▲	Pinn 3.38
2	2.20 → 1.93▼	Pinn 1.93

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26	3.27	3.15	2.20
01:33	3.31▲	3.19▲	2.22▲
09:24	3.89▲	3.38▲	1.93▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guayaquil City 1–3–2 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	4-1 HT 0-1	Guayaquil City
12/08/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	0-0 HT 0-0	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
05/03/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	3-0 HT 2-0	Guayaquil City
17/07/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Guayaquil City	2-0 HT 1-0	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
26/02/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	1-1 HT 1-1	Guayaquil City
22/08/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	1-1 HT 1-0	Guayaquil City

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	21	17	1	3	52	20	52
2	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador	21	10	5	6	33	19	35
3	SD Aucas	21	10	5	6	23	21	35
4	Barcelona Guayaquil	21	9	7	5	23	16	34
5	Macara	21	9	5	7	24	21	32
6	LDU Quito	21	8	5	8	20	17	29
7	Leones FC	21	7	7	7	22	21	28
8	Emelec	21	7	7	7	18	24	28
9	Deportivo Cuenca	21	8	4	9	19	26	28
10	Guayaquil City	21	7	6	8	19	23	27
11	Orense	21	7	5	9	25	29	26
12	Mushuc Runa	21	6	7	8	27	31	25
13	Club Atletico Libertad	21	6	6	9	19	26	24
14	Tecnico Universitario	21	7	2	12	19	24	23
15	Delfin SC	21	6	5	10	13	20	23
16	Manta FC	21	3	5	13	8	26	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guayaquil City	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
Leones FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Barcelona Guayaquil	1-1 D	2-1 W
Delfin SC	2-1 W	2-2 D
Independiente del Valle	2-4 L	0-3 L
Mushuc Runa	2-2 D	2-3 L
Orense	0-1 L	2-1 W
Deportivo Cuenca	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Guayaquil City (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Guayaquil City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
19/07	Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
16/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
12/07	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-1	6	5	W
08/07	SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
31/05	Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-2	2-4	0	5	L
23/05	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-2	2-2	1	5	D
19/05	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
14/05	Astillero FC Ecuador Cup	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
09/05	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
18/07	Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
16/07	LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/07	Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	11	L
06/07	Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-1	2-3	7	2	L
01/06	Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
29/05	El Nacional Ecuador Cup	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
23/05	Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
16/05	Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
14/05	Independiente del Valle Ecuador Super Cup	0-2	0-3	5	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guayaquil City vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Universidad Catolica del Ecuador win (37%). Probabilities: Guayaquil City 35%, draw 28%, Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 37%.

How many goals are expected in Guayaquil City vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Guayaquil City 1.34 · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1.39), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Guayaquil City vs Universidad Catolica del Ecuador?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.