Prediction: Capalaba (W) vs Souths United NPL (W)
Expected goals: 4.31 (Capalaba (W) 3.06 · Souths United NPL (W) 1.25). The model gives 73% home, 16% draw, 12% away. Over 3.75 goals (55%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 3-1.
Recent form leaves Capalaba (W) with 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses over 10 games; Souths United NPL (W) has piled up 0-0-10 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for Capalaba (W) and 1 for Souths United NPL (W), with 2 draws.
| Capalaba (W) | Draw | Souths United NPL (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 15% | 12% |
| Market | 72% | 16% | 11% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Capalaba (W) (rating 1468 vs 1343).
- H2H favours Capalaba (W): 3-2-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Capalaba (W) | Souths United NPL (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.4 | 0.9 / 6.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.8 | 0.3 / 3.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 0/10/90% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.5 / 2.4 | 1.1 / 2.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1 / 0 | 1.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Capalaba (W) 3–2–1 Souths United NPL (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Souths United NPL (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Capalaba (W) |
| 14/03/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Capalaba (W) | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Souths United NPL (W) |
| 11/08/23 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Capalaba (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Souths United NPL (W) |
| 02/06/23 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Souths United NPL (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Capalaba (W) |
| 24/03/23 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Capalaba (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Souths United NPL (W) |
| 13/08/22 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Capalaba (W) | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Souths United NPL (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold Coast Knights (W) | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 58 | 15 | 45 |
| 2 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 16 | 43 |
| 3 | Brisbane City (W) | 19 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 48 | 12 | 42 |
| 4 | Lions FC (W) | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 45 | 19 | 36 |
| 5 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 29 |
| 6 | Gold Coast United (W) | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 28 | 27 |
| 7 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 33 | 20 |
| 8 | FQ QAS Women | 21 | 6 | 1 | 14 | 41 | 61 | 19 |
| 9 | Capalaba (W) | 20 | 6 | 1 | 13 | 23 | 46 | 19 |
| 10 | Souths United NPL (W) | 21 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 14 | 93 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Capalaba (W) | Souths United NPL (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Coast Knights (W) | 1-5 L | 0-13 L |
| FQ QAS Women | 3-0 W | 3-4 L |
| Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 0-3 L | 1-4 L |
| Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 1-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Gold Coast United (W) | 1-2 L | 0-12 L |
| Brisbane City (W) | 0-3 L | 0-6 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 5 L | 0 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Capalaba (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Capalaba (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-2 | 1-5 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 30/06 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 23/06 | Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 20/06 | Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 06/06 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 03/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
4-0 | 4-3 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 03/05 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
Souths United NPL (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-8 | 0-13 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-7 | 0-12 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 30/06 | Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 0-6 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 21/06 | Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 12/06 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-2 | 1-5 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-5 | 2-8 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-3 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 12/05 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-3 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Capalaba (W) vs Souths United NPL (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Capalaba (W) win (73%). Probabilities: Capalaba (W) 73%, draw 16%, Souths United NPL (W) 12%.
How many goals are expected in Capalaba (W) vs Souths United NPL (W)?
The model expects 4.31 goals (Capalaba (W) 3.06 · Souths United NPL (W) 1.25), with a 55% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Capalaba (W) vs Souths United NPL (W)?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.