Football · Australia NPL Queensland Women · 25/07, 11:00
Prediction: Grange Thistle (W) vs Caboolture FC (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.4Total
Grange Thistle (W)0.79
Caboolture FC (W)2.61
1X2
Grange Thistle (W)
Draw
Caboolture FC (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Grange Thistle (W)
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Caboolture FC (W)
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Grange Thistle (W)
0–1–3
Caboolture FC (W)
(4 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Grange Thistle (W) 1497 · Caboolture FC (W) 1609
| Grange Thistle (W) | Draw | Caboolture FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 8% | 16% | 76% |
| Market | 10% | 13% | 77% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caboolture FC (W) (rating 1497 vs 1609).
- H2H favours Caboolture FC (W): 3-1-0.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Grange Thistle (W) | Caboolture FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 2.5 | 2.8 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 70/30/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.2 | 4.3 / 7.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.7 / 0.1 | 1.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Grange Thistle (W) 0–1–3 Caboolture FC (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Caboolture FC (W) | 7-0 HT 5-0 | Grange Thistle (W) |
| 05/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Grange Thistle (W) | 0-5 HT 0-3 | Caboolture FC (W) |
| 20/07/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Caboolture FC (W) | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Grange Thistle (W) |
| 14/09/19 Australia Brisbane Capital League Women | Grange Thistle (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Caboolture FC (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold Coast Knights (W) | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 65 | 16 | 49 |
| 2 | Brisbane City (W) | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 51 | 15 | 46 |
| 3 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 43 | 20 | 46 |
| 4 | Lions FC (W) | 21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 20 | 42 |
| 5 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 27 | 34 |
| 6 | Gold Coast United (W) | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 36 | 31 | 32 |
| 7 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 23 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 31 | 36 | 26 |
| 8 | Capalaba (W) | 23 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 30 | 53 | 22 |
| 9 | FQ QAS Women | 23 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 43 | 70 | 19 |
| 10 | Souths United NPL (W) | 23 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 14 | 103 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Grange Thistle (W) | Caboolture FC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| North Lakes United (W) | 3-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Virginia United SC (W) | 5-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Logan Lightning (W) | 3-1 W | 5-1 W |
| Mitchelton FC (W) | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Peninsula Power (W) | 4-2 W | 4-1 W |
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| The Gap NPL (W) | 2-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 3 L | 6 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Caboolture FC (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Grange Thistle (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 14/07 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 12/07 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 07/07 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-2 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-5 | 0-7 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 0 | L |
Caboolture FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 11/07 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 04/07 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
4-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 13/06 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
5-0 | 7-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Grange Thistle (W) vs Caboolture FC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Caboolture FC (W) win (76%). Probabilities: Grange Thistle (W) 9%, draw 14%, Caboolture FC (W) 76%.
How many goals are expected in Grange Thistle (W) vs Caboolture FC (W)?
The model expects 3.4 goals (Grange Thistle (W) 0.79 · Caboolture FC (W) 2.61), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Grange Thistle (W) vs Caboolture FC (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.