Football · Australia NPL Queensland Women · 24/07, 12:30
Prediction: Lions FC (W) vs Capalaba (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.3Total
Lions FC (W)3.15
Capalaba (W)1.15
1X2
Lions FC (W)
Draw
Capalaba (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
Lions FC (W)
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Capalaba (W)
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lions FC (W)
5–1–0
Capalaba (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lions FC (W) 1567 · Capalaba (W) 1434
| Lions FC (W) | Draw | Capalaba (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 84% | 10% | 5% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lions FC (W) (rating 1567 vs 1434).
- H2H favours Lions FC (W): 5-1-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lions FC (W) | Capalaba (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 1.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.9 | 0.9 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.5 / 0 | 1.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lions FC (W) 5–1–0 Capalaba (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Capalaba (W) | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Lions FC (W) |
| 21/03/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Lions FC (W) | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Capalaba (W) |
| 30/07/23 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Capalaba (W) | 1-5 HT 1-0 | Lions FC (W) |
| 21/05/23 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Lions FC (W) | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Capalaba (W) |
| 11/03/23 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Lions FC (W) | 9-0 HT 3-0 | Capalaba (W) |
| 27/08/22 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Capalaba (W) | 0-5 HT 0-0 | Lions FC (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold Coast Knights (W) | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 65 | 16 | 49 |
| 2 | Brisbane City (W) | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 51 | 15 | 46 |
| 3 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 43 | 20 | 46 |
| 4 | Lions FC (W) | 21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 20 | 42 |
| 5 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 27 | 34 |
| 6 | Gold Coast United (W) | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 36 | 31 | 32 |
| 7 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 23 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 31 | 36 | 26 |
| 8 | Capalaba (W) | 23 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 30 | 53 | 22 |
| 9 | FQ QAS Women | 23 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 43 | 70 | 19 |
| 10 | Souths United NPL (W) | 23 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 14 | 103 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lions FC (W) | Capalaba (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 3-1 W | 0-5 L |
| Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 5-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Gold Coast Knights (W) | 0-2 L | 1-5 L |
| FQ QAS Women | 3-2 W | 3-0 W |
| Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Lions FC (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lions FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 30/06 | Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 23/06 | Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 20/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 03/06 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
Capalaba (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 14/07 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
4-0 | 6-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-2 | 1-5 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 30/06 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 23/06 | Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 20/06 | Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 06/06 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 03/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
4-0 | 4-3 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lions FC (W) vs Capalaba (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lions FC (W) win (81%). Probabilities: Lions FC (W) 81%, draw 12%, Capalaba (W) 7%.
How many goals are expected in Lions FC (W) vs Capalaba (W)?
The model expects 4.3 goals (Lions FC (W) 3.15 · Capalaba (W) 1.15), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Lions FC (W) vs Capalaba (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.