Football · Australia NPL Queensland Women · 01/08, 09:00
Prediction: Brisbane City (W) vs Capalaba (W)
Team pages: Brisbane City (W) · Capalaba (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.72Total
Brisbane City (W)2.86
Capalaba (W)0.86
1X2
Brisbane City (W)
Draw
Capalaba (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Brisbane City (W)
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Capalaba (W)
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Brisbane City (W)
2–1
Capalaba (W)
(3 last)
- Capalaba (W)0-3Brisbane City (W)
- Brisbane City (W)2-0Capalaba (W)
- Brisbane City (W)1-4Capalaba (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brisbane City (W) 1580 · Capalaba (W) 1410
| Brisbane City (W) | Draw | Capalaba (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 86% | 9% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brisbane City (W) (rating 1580 vs 1410).
- H2H favours Brisbane City (W): 2-0-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brisbane City (W) | Capalaba (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.5 | 1.5 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.1 | 1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 7.1 | 0.9 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.4 / 0 | 0.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brisbane City (W) 2–0–1 Capalaba (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Capalaba (W) | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Brisbane City (W) |
| 31/03/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Brisbane City (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Capalaba (W) |
| 20/04/21 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Brisbane City (W) | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Capalaba (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold Coast Knights (W) | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 68 | 19 | 52 |
| 2 | Brisbane City (W) | 23 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 54 | 15 | 49 |
| 3 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 46 | 20 | 49 |
| 4 | Lions FC (W) | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 55 | 21 | 48 |
| 5 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 30 | 34 |
| 6 | Gold Coast United (W) | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 36 | 31 | 32 |
| 7 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 23 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 31 | 36 | 26 |
| 8 | Capalaba (W) | 24 | 7 | 1 | 16 | 31 | 56 | 22 |
| 9 | FQ QAS Women | 24 | 6 | 1 | 17 | 43 | 73 | 19 |
| 10 | Souths United NPL (W) | 24 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 14 | 106 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Brisbane City (W) | Capalaba (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 3-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Lions FC (W) | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 1-0 W | 0-5 L |
| Souths United NPL (W) | 6-0 W | 6-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Brisbane City (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brisbane City (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 14/07 | Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 11/07 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 05/07 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 30/06 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 6-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 24/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 0 | D |
| 20/06 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 06/06 | Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 19 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
Capalaba (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 19/07 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 14/07 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
4-0 | 6-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-2 | 1-5 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 30/06 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 23/06 | Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 20/06 | Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 06/06 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 03/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brisbane City (W) vs Capalaba (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Brisbane City (W) win (82%). Probabilities: Brisbane City (W) 82%, draw 12%, Capalaba (W) 6%.
How many goals are expected in Brisbane City (W) vs Capalaba (W)?
The model expects 3.72 goals (Brisbane City (W) 2.86 · Capalaba (W) 0.86), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Brisbane City (W) vs Capalaba (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.