Football · Australia NPL Queensland Women · 01/08, 09:30

Prediction: Gold Coast United (W) vs Gold Coast Knights (W)

Team pages: Gold Coast United (W) · Gold Coast Knights (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Gold Coast United (W)1

Gold Coast Knights (W)1.99

1X2

18% 23% 59%

Gold Coast United (W) Draw Gold Coast Knights (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gold Coast United (W) 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDWWDD

Gold Coast Knights (W) 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWDWWL

Head-to-head

Gold Coast United (W) 0–5 Gold Coast Knights (W) (5 last)

Gold Coast Knights (W)5-0Gold Coast United (W)
Gold Coast Knights (W)3-0Gold Coast United (W)
Gold Coast United (W)1-3Gold Coast Knights (W)
Gold Coast United (W)0-1Gold Coast Knights (W)
Gold Coast Knights (W)2-0Gold Coast United (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gold Coast United (W) 1513 · Gold Coast Knights (W) 1572

	Gold Coast United (W)	Draw	Gold Coast Knights (W)
Our model	17%	23%	59%
Market	18%	22%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gold Coast Knights (W) (rating 1513 vs 1572).
H2H favours Gold Coast Knights (W): 5-0-0.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gold Coast United (W)	Gold Coast Knights (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 0.7	3.4 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	1.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.3	3.8 / 8.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0.1	0.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.00

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.95

2 (-1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
07:09 +2’	5.00	4.00	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gold Coast United (W) 0–0–5 Gold Coast Knights (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Gold Coast Knights (W)	5-0 HT 2-0	Gold Coast United (W)
31/03/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Gold Coast Knights (W)	3-0 HT 0-0	Gold Coast United (W)
02/08/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Gold Coast United (W)	1-3 HT 1-2	Gold Coast Knights (W)
28/06/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Gold Coast United (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Gold Coast Knights (W)
24/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Gold Coast Knights (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Gold Coast United (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gold Coast Knights (W)	23	16	4	3	68	19	52
2	Brisbane City (W)	23	14	7	2	54	15	49
3	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	24	15	4	5	46	20	49
4	Lions FC (W)	23	15	3	5	55	21	48
5	Brisbane Olympic FC (W)	24	9	7	8	29	30	34
6	Gold Coast United (W)	22	8	8	6	36	31	32
7	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W)	23	8	2	13	31	36	26
8	Capalaba (W)	24	7	1	16	31	56	22
9	FQ QAS Women	24	6	1	17	43	73	19
10	Souths United NPL (W)	24	0	1	23	14	106	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gold Coast United (W)	Gold Coast Knights (W)
Brisbane Olympic FC (W)	0-0 D	1-1 D
FQ QAS Women	3-2 W	6-0 W
Souths United NPL (W)	12-0 W	3-0 W
Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W)	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Gold Coast United (W) (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gold Coast United (W)

WWLWDDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
14/07	Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	1-1	2	0	D
11/07	FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	3-2	6	1	W
04/07	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	7-0	12-0	10	2	W
30/06	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
24/06	FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
21/06	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
06/06	Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-2	1-2	8	0	L
31/05	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
24/05	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	2-0	2-1	2	1	W

Gold Coast Knights (W)

WDDWWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	0-3	3	0	L
25/07	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	3-0	19	3	W
17/07	FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women	3-0	6-0	4	1	W
11/07	Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	1-1	3	0	D
08/07	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	8-0	13-0	16	1	W
04/07	Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	2-0	5-1	8	0	W
30/06	Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	2-0	9	1	W
27/06	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	1-1	11	2	D
24/06	Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-1	1-1	6	0	D
20/06	Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	2-0	2-0	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gold Coast United (W) vs Gold Coast Knights (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gold Coast Knights (W) win (59%). Probabilities: Gold Coast United (W) 18%, draw 23%, Gold Coast Knights (W) 59%.

How many goals are expected in Gold Coast United (W) vs Gold Coast Knights (W)?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Gold Coast United (W) 1 · Gold Coast Knights (W) 1.99), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gold Coast United (W) vs Gold Coast Knights (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.