Football · Australia NPL Queensland Women · 29/07, 12:30
Prediction: Gold Coast Knights (W) vs Lions FC (W)
Team pages: Gold Coast Knights (W) · Lions FC (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.68Total
Gold Coast Knights (W)2.32
Lions FC (W)1.36
1X2
Gold Coast Knights (W)
Draw
Lions FC (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Gold Coast Knights (W)
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Lions FC (W)
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gold Coast Knights (W)
4–1–1
Lions FC (W)
(6 last)
- Gold Coast Knights (W)2-0Lions FC (W)
- Lions FC (W)2-4Gold Coast Knights (W)
- Gold Coast Knights (W)4-0Lions FC (W)
- Gold Coast Knights (W)1-1Lions FC (W)
- Lions FC (W)0-2Gold Coast Knights (W)
- Lions FC (W)2-0Gold Coast Knights (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gold Coast Knights (W) 1606 · Lions FC (W) 1554
| Gold Coast Knights (W) | Draw | Lions FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| Market | 57% | 23% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gold Coast Knights (W) (rating 1606 vs 1554).
- H2H favours Gold Coast Knights (W): 4-1-1.
- High corners: 13 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gold Coast Knights (W) | Lions FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.8 / 0.7 | 2.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.9 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 8.9 | 2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1 / 0.1 | 1.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gold Coast Knights (W) 4–1–1 Lions FC (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Gold Coast Knights (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Lions FC (W) |
| 28/02/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Lions FC (W) | 2-4 HT 1-2 | Gold Coast Knights (W) |
| 05/09/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Gold Coast Knights (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Lions FC (W) |
| 12/07/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Gold Coast Knights (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Lions FC (W) |
| 03/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Lions FC (W) | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Gold Coast Knights (W) |
| 22/02/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Lions FC (W) | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Gold Coast Knights (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold Coast Knights (W) | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 68 | 19 | 52 |
| 2 | Brisbane City (W) | 23 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 54 | 15 | 49 |
| 3 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 46 | 20 | 49 |
| 4 | Lions FC (W) | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 55 | 21 | 48 |
| 5 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 29 | 30 | 34 |
| 6 | Gold Coast United (W) | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 36 | 31 | 32 |
| 7 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 23 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 31 | 36 | 26 |
| 8 | Capalaba (W) | 24 | 7 | 1 | 16 | 31 | 56 | 22 |
| 9 | FQ QAS Women | 24 | 6 | 1 | 17 | 43 | 73 | 19 |
| 10 | Souths United NPL (W) | 24 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 14 | 106 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gold Coast Knights (W) | Lions FC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| FQ QAS Women | 6-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 1-1 D | 5-0 W |
| Capalaba (W) | 5-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 0 L | 4 W 0 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gold Coast Knights (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 19 | 3 | W |
| 17/07 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
3-0 | 6-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 08/07 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
8-0 | 13-0 | 16 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
2-0 | 5-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 30/06 | Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 27/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 24/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 20/06 | Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
3-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 2 | W |
Lions FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 30/06 | Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 23/06 | Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 20/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 03/06 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gold Coast Knights (W) vs Lions FC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gold Coast Knights (W) win (58%). Probabilities: Gold Coast Knights (W) 58%, draw 22%, Lions FC (W) 20%.
How many goals are expected in Gold Coast Knights (W) vs Lions FC (W)?
The model expects 3.68 goals (Gold Coast Knights (W) 2.32 · Lions FC (W) 1.36), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Gold Coast Knights (W) vs Lions FC (W)?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.