Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 14/08, 12:30
Prediction: The Gap NPL (W) vs Moreton City Excelsior (W)
Team pages: The Gap NPL (W) · Moreton City Excelsior (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.09Total
The Gap NPL (W)3.05
Moreton City Excelsior (W)1.05
1X2
The Gap NPL (W)
Draw
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
The Gap NPL (W)
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
0-1-9 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
The Gap NPL (W)
1–0
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
(1 last)
- Moreton City Excelsior (W)2-3The Gap NPL (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · The Gap NPL (W) 1520 · Moreton City Excelsior (W) 1388
| The Gap NPL (W) | Draw | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 82% | 9% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.09 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours The Gap NPL (W) (rating 1520 vs 1388).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| The Gap NPL (W) | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 2.5 | 0.7 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4 | 1.1 / 2.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.6 / 0.2 | 0.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · The Gap NPL (W) 1–0–0 Moreton City Excelsior (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 2-3 HT 1-3 | The Gap NPL (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Lakes United (W) | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 60 | 13 | 41 |
| 2 | Caboolture FC (W) | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 45 | 13 | 40 |
| 3 | The Gap NPL (W) | 17 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 45 | 45 | 28 |
| 4 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 28 | 27 |
| 5 | Peninsula Power (W) | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 40 | 23 |
| 6 | Grange Thistle (W) | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 31 | 21 |
| 7 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 32 | 21 |
| 8 | Virginia United SC (W) | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 37 | 17 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning (W) | 16 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 24 | 52 | 15 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 40 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | The Gap NPL (W) | Moreton City Excelsior (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia United SC (W) | 5-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Grange Thistle (W) | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Peninsula Power (W) | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| North Lakes United (W) | 1-6 L | 0-6 L |
| Logan Lightning (W) | 3-2 W | 2-3 L |
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 5-3 W | 1-1 D |
| Mitchelton FC (W) | 4-3 W | 2-5 L |
| Caboolture FC (W) | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 1 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: The Gap NPL (W) (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
The Gap NPL (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 24/07 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-6 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 10/07 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
4-0 | 5-3 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-2 | 4-3 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 07/06 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 31/05 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 1 | W |
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 31/07 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 2-5 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/07 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-6 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in The Gap NPL (W) vs Moreton City Excelsior (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a The Gap NPL (W) win (80%). Probabilities: The Gap NPL (W) 80%, draw 11%, Moreton City Excelsior (W) 9%.
How many goals are expected in The Gap NPL (W) vs Moreton City Excelsior (W)?
The model expects 4.09 goals (The Gap NPL (W) 3.05 · Moreton City Excelsior (W) 1.05), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in The Gap NPL (W) vs Moreton City Excelsior (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.