Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 08/08, 09:00
Prediction: Caboolture FC (W) vs Moreton City Excelsior (W)
Team pages: Caboolture FC (W) · Moreton City Excelsior (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.03Total
Caboolture FC (W)3.01
Moreton City Excelsior (W)1.01
1X2
Caboolture FC (W)
Draw
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
Caboolture FC (W)
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Caboolture FC (W)
3–0
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
(3 last)
- Moreton City Excelsior (W)0-3Caboolture FC (W)
- Caboolture FC (W)8-2Moreton City Excelsior (W)
- Caboolture FC (W)9-0Moreton City Excelsior (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Caboolture FC (W) 1592 · Moreton City Excelsior (W) 1385
| Caboolture FC (W) | Draw | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 91% | 6% | 3% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.03 goals · Bet365 line 4.5 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caboolture FC (W) (rating 1592 vs 1385).
- H2H favours Caboolture FC (W): 3-0-0.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caboolture FC (W) | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.1 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 7.9 | 1.3 / 2.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.5 / 0.1 | 1.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caboolture FC (W) 3–0–0 Moreton City Excelsior (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Caboolture FC (W) |
| 19/02/26 Australia Queensland Pro Series Women | Caboolture FC (W) | 8-2 HT 6-1 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) |
| 05/07/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Caboolture FC (W) | 9-0 HT 5-0 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Lakes United (W) | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 57 | 12 | 38 |
| 2 | Caboolture FC (W) | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 43 | 13 | 37 |
| 3 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 25 | 27 |
| 4 | The Gap NPL (W) | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 40 | 44 | 25 |
| 5 | Grange Thistle (W) | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 30 | 21 |
| 6 | Peninsula Power (W) | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 40 | 20 |
| 7 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 32 | 18 |
| 8 | Virginia United SC (W) | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 32 | 17 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning (W) | 15 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 24 | 49 | 15 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 16 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Caboolture FC (W) | Moreton City Excelsior (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia United SC (W) | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Grange Thistle (W) | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Peninsula Power (W) | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| North Lakes United (W) | 0-0 D | 0-6 L |
| Logan Lightning (W) | 5-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| The Gap NPL (W) | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Mitchelton FC (W) | 1-0 W | 2-5 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 3 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: Caboolture FC (W) (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caboolture FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 17/07 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 11/07 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 04/07 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
4-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 13/06 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
Moreton City Excelsior (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 2-5 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/07 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-6 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caboolture FC (W) vs Moreton City Excelsior (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Caboolture FC (W) win (85%). Probabilities: Caboolture FC (W) 85%, draw 9%, Moreton City Excelsior (W) 6%.
How many goals are expected in Caboolture FC (W) vs Moreton City Excelsior (W)?
The model expects 4.03 goals (Caboolture FC (W) 3.01 · Moreton City Excelsior (W) 1.01), with a 56% chance of under 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Caboolture FC (W) vs Moreton City Excelsior (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.