Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 08/08, 09:00
Prediction: Peninsula Power (W) vs Logan Lightning (W)
Team pages: Peninsula Power (W) · Logan Lightning (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.35Total
Peninsula Power (W)2.69
Logan Lightning (W)1.66
1X2
Peninsula Power (W)
Draw
Logan Lightning (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Peninsula Power (W)
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Logan Lightning (W)
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Peninsula Power (W)
5–1
Logan Lightning (W)
(6 last)
- Logan Lightning (W)4-2Peninsula Power (W)
- Logan Lightning (W)2-3Peninsula Power (W)
- Peninsula Power (W)2-0Logan Lightning (W)
- Logan Lightning (W)0-2Peninsula Power (W)
- Logan Lightning (W)0-5Peninsula Power (W)
- Peninsula Power (W)4-0Logan Lightning (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Peninsula Power (W) 1506 · Logan Lightning (W) 1432
| Peninsula Power (W) | Draw | Logan Lightning (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 19% | 22% |
| Market | 59% | 20% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.35 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Peninsula Power (W) (rating 1506 vs 1432).
- H2H favours Peninsula Power (W): 5-0-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Peninsula Power (W) | Logan Lightning (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 2.1 | 1.4 / 3.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.5 | 1.8 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.5 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Peninsula Power (W) 5–0–1 Logan Lightning (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Logan Lightning (W) | 4-2 HT 3-1 | Peninsula Power (W) |
| 22/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Logan Lightning (W) | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Peninsula Power (W) |
| 22/03/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Peninsula Power (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Logan Lightning (W) |
| 11/09/22 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Logan Lightning (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Peninsula Power (W) |
| 16/07/22 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Logan Lightning (W) | 0-5 HT 0-0 | Peninsula Power (W) |
| 10/07/22 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Peninsula Power (W) | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Logan Lightning (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Lakes United (W) | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 57 | 12 | 38 |
| 2 | Caboolture FC (W) | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 43 | 13 | 37 |
| 3 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 25 | 27 |
| 4 | The Gap NPL (W) | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 40 | 44 | 25 |
| 5 | Grange Thistle (W) | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 30 | 21 |
| 6 | Peninsula Power (W) | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 40 | 20 |
| 7 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 32 | 18 |
| 8 | Virginia United SC (W) | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 32 | 17 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning (W) | 15 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 24 | 49 | 15 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 16 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Peninsula Power (W) | Logan Lightning (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| The Gap NPL (W) | 2-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Caboolture FC (W) | 1-4 L | 1-5 L |
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Virginia United SC (W) | 3-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Grange Thistle (W) | 2-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Mitchelton FC (W) | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| North Lakes United (W) | 1-0 W | 1-8 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: Peninsula Power (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Peninsula Power (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 24/07 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/07 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 1-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-2 | 2-4 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 15/06 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 09/06 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
Logan Lightning (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-5 | 1-8 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 10/07 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 07/07 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-4 | 1-5 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 01/07 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 05/06 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
0-3 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 26/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
4-0 | 4-3 | 4 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Peninsula Power (W) vs Logan Lightning (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Peninsula Power (W) win (59%). Probabilities: Peninsula Power (W) 59%, draw 19%, Logan Lightning (W) 22%.
How many goals are expected in Peninsula Power (W) vs Logan Lightning (W)?
The model expects 4.35 goals (Peninsula Power (W) 2.69 · Logan Lightning (W) 1.66), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Peninsula Power (W) vs Logan Lightning (W)?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.