Football · Australia Queensland Premier League Women · 14/08, 12:30
Prediction: Logan Lightning (W) vs Grange Thistle (W)
Team pages: Logan Lightning (W) · Grange Thistle (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.01Total
Logan Lightning (W)1.28
Grange Thistle (W)2.73
1X2
Logan Lightning (W)
Draw
Grange Thistle (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Logan Lightning (W)
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Grange Thistle (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Logan Lightning (W)
2–1
Grange Thistle (W)
(3 last)
- Grange Thistle (W)3-1Logan Lightning (W)
- Grange Thistle (W)0-1Logan Lightning (W)
- Logan Lightning (W)4-1Grange Thistle (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Logan Lightning (W) 1420 · Grange Thistle (W) 1532
| Logan Lightning (W) | Draw | Grange Thistle (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 18% | 67% |
| Market | 15% | 18% | 67% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grange Thistle (W) (rating 1420 vs 1532).
- H2H favours Logan Lightning (W): 2-0-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Logan Lightning (W) | Grange Thistle (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 3.7 | 2.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 2.2 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/30/70% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.4 | 1.9 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.9 / 0 | 1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Logan Lightning (W) 2–0–1 Grange Thistle (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/26 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Grange Thistle (W) | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Logan Lightning (W) |
| 24/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Grange Thistle (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Logan Lightning (W) |
| 29/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League Women | Logan Lightning (W) | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Grange Thistle (W) |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Lakes United (W) | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 60 | 13 | 41 |
| 2 | Caboolture FC (W) | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 45 | 13 | 40 |
| 3 | The Gap NPL (W) | 17 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 45 | 45 | 28 |
| 4 | Mitchelton FC (W) | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 28 | 27 |
| 5 | Peninsula Power (W) | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 40 | 23 |
| 6 | Grange Thistle (W) | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 31 | 21 |
| 7 | Palm Beach SC (W) | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 32 | 21 |
| 8 | Virginia United SC (W) | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 37 | 17 |
| 9 | Logan Lightning (W) | 16 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 24 | 52 | 15 |
| 10 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 40 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Logan Lightning (W) | Grange Thistle (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Peninsula Power (W) | 0-3 L | 4-2 W |
| North Lakes United (W) | 1-8 L | 3-2 W |
| Mitchelton FC (W) | 1-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Palm Beach SC (W) | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| The Gap NPL (W) | 2-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Caboolture FC (W) | 1-5 L | 1-1 D |
| Virginia United SC (W) | 0-2 L | 5-0 W |
| Moreton City Excelsior (W) | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 7 L | 5 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Grange Thistle (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Logan Lightning (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 01/08 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-5 | 1-8 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 10/07 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 07/07 | Grange Thistle (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-4 | 1-5 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 01/07 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 05/06 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Pro Series Women |
0-3 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
Grange Thistle (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 01/08 | The Gap NPL (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 25/07 | Caboolture FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 18/07 | Moreton City Excelsior (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 14/07 | North Lakes United (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 12/07 | Virginia United SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 07/07 | Logan Lightning (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Mitchelton FC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | Peninsula Power (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
2-2 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Palm Beach SC (W) Australia Queensland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Logan Lightning (W) vs Grange Thistle (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Grange Thistle (W) win (67%). Probabilities: Logan Lightning (W) 15%, draw 18%, Grange Thistle (W) 67%.
How many goals are expected in Logan Lightning (W) vs Grange Thistle (W)?
The model expects 4.01 goals (Logan Lightning (W) 1.28 · Grange Thistle (W) 2.73), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Logan Lightning (W) vs Grange Thistle (W)?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.